Pro bettors, Circa ‘losers’ give best bets for Super Bowl
In the “Seinfeld” episode “The Opposite,” George decides to turn his life around by doing the exact opposite of what he would normally do.
“If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right,” Jerry tells him.
The strategy is wildly successful.
After going 3-19-3 ATS down the stretch and finishing last in the Circa Sports Million pro football contest (29-55-6 ATS), the entry named “Big Booty Juedys” plans to pull a Costanza next season.
“We’re going to enter two teams next year and fade ourselves,” said Preston Hollis, who along with Taylor Preisser and Dan Stone won the $100,000 booby prize in the contest and an extra $12,500 for tying for a quarterly prize for last place.
To put the Costanza principle to the test, I asked the three fun-loving friends for their best bet in the Super Bowl. They won’t blame you if you bet against them.
“Fading is completely reasonable given our history,” Preisser said. “We are all on the Chiefs and the under. (Kansas City quarterback Patrick) Mahomes as an underdog seems like the right place to have money. If he ends up banged up, then the game likely goes under.
“So Eagles by two touchdowns and 60-something points is probably the story.”
After getting their pick, I asked professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw for his best bet on the game. As fate would have it, he likes Philadelphia.
“I do like the Eagles quite a bit,” he said. “First off, I don’t feel Mahomes will be healthy. The Chiefs have a lot of injuries. The Eagles have the best offensive line and they have a tremendous pass rush. I don’t believe Mahomes is going to have time to throw, and then throw the injury in.
“Most doctors say this (high ankle sprain) injury, you should be off your feet four to six weeks. Most say he won’t be any healthier on Sunday than he was two weeks ago. He didn’t look great then. It’s still Mahomes, and he’s still very capable. But then throw in that he’s going to get sacked a few times.”
Whitelaw, who hit his pick in the Review-Journal on the Chiefs over the Bengals in the AFC championship game, compared this matchup to the 2021 Super Bowl in which Tampa Bay crushed Kansas City.
Mahomes threw two interceptions and was sacked three times in that 31-9 loss.
“Tampa put a tremendous amount of pressure on him, and he didn’t do very good in that spot,” he said. “Philadelphia has a tremendous front. I don’t think Kansas City will be able to run the ball that well. Kansas City will do a lot of short passing.”
Kelce corner
For a prop, Preisser said they’ve targeted Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
“Last little gem we all really like is Kelce first TD prop,” he said of the 7-1 favorite.
Whitelaw recommends wagers on Kelce to go over his receptions (6½), receiving yards (78½) and to score a TD (-120).
“That will be (Mahomes’) security blanket,” he said.
Eagles-Chiefs under 51
The past seven NFL playoff games have gone under the total, and so have the past four Super Bowls.
Pro sports bettor Erin Rynning, who hit his pick in the RJ on the Eagles-49ers under in NFC title game, expects that trend to continue Sunday.
“With Patrick Mahomes still not 100 percent, expect more of an effort to get rid of the ball quickly, while taking what the defense gives him,” said Rynning (@ersports1). “The Eagles’ defense is also built to take away the big play and has come on strong to close the season.
“Meanwhile, the Eagles’ offense and excellent offensive line will look to play their own grind-out game on the ground.”
Prop play
Will the game be tied after 0-0? VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco recommends a play on “yes,” which is -120 at the Westgate SuperBook.
“In what should be a very competitive Super Bowl based on the line,” he said, “I see good value with a simple prop of ‘Will the game be tied at any point after 0-0?’ with laying only (-120).”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.