Sharp action on Circa’s alternate high, low NFL season win totals
Want a bigger bang for your buck on NFL season win totals or a safer play at a higher price? Check out Circa Sports’ alternate high and low numbers for every team.
Circa made each team’s alternate high total one win higher than its standard season win total and each team’s alternate low one win lower.
“It gives you another way to play it and get a bigger payout than even money, though the team has to exceed or fall below expectations,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 14-2 last season, have the highest standard total at Circa at 12½ for the NFL’s first 17-game schedule. Over 12½ pays +110, but over the alternate high of 13½ pays +205. On the flip side, under the alternate low of 11½ pays +150.
Sharp action
Circa posted the alternate totals Saturday and took a sharp bet on the Baltimore Ravens to go over their alternate low of 9½ (-250). Bennett said the wager was probably made because Circa’s standard total on the Ravens (10½) is lower than the market (11).
“Going over 9½, because they’re using a slightly different number, could get you a little bit of an edge,” professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said.
Bennett said Circa also had customers bet under the alternate high and over the alternate low on the same team in an attempt to hit the middle and win both wagers. Those teams included the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans.
Best bets
Whitelaw already had wagered on the Bears and Colts to go over their standard totals before doubling down on them to go over their alternate lows.
He took Indianapolis over 9 at -210.
“With the Colts getting to play four games against Jacksonville and Houston, they’re almost for sure going to win nine,” Whitelaw said. “Obviously, I expect to win the bet or I wouldn’t be betting it. But I just need them to get to nine and I can’t lose.
“I think the Colts are vastly improved, and they get the extra home game in the AFC.”
He played Chicago over 6½ at -180.
“They have a chance at not facing Aaron Rodgers twice, and they get the Lions, one of the softer teams, a couple times,” he said. “The Bears have a very good defense, and I really like to play teams that have good defenses. It seems like that’s where they can keep themselves in games.
“I like them to probably win around nine games, so to get to seven seems pretty strong.”
Whitelaw also bet the Denver Broncos to go over their alternate low of 7½ at -225.
“The Broncos had a lot of injuries last year and are getting all those guys back, like Von Miller,” he said. “They get the extra home game and an outside chance to get Rodgers. I’m certainly not expecting it, but if he’s going to go somewhere, that’s probably where he’ll go.”
Mister Rodgers
Green Bay, which went 13-3 last season, has a standard total of nine and an alternate high of 10, with the over paying +175. That price might prove to be a bargain if Rodgers returns to the Packers.
“The Packers’ number has the most variance from this point until the season starts because of Rodgers’ uncertainty,” Bennett said. “If we knew Rodgers was for sure going to be the Packers quarterback for Week 1, their win number would be higher than it is now.”
Circa posted a prop at its Colorado sportsbook on Rodgers’ next team, and Green Bay is the -140 favorite, followed by Denver at +350.
“So the odds are barely better than 50-50 that his next team is the Packers,” Bennett said.
Public teams
Bennett said the betting public is banking on the Cleveland Browns to have another big year after going 11-5 last season and getting their first playoff win since 1994.
“I’m a little skeptical,” Bennett said. “They didn’t really have that many quality wins last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns are underachievers this year.”
The public also is all over the Vikings, who went 7-9 last season. Bennett said every bet on Minnesota’s win totals has been on the over and that the Vikings are one of Circa’s largest Super Bowl liabilities. They’re 25-1 after being as high as 50-1.
“I don’t really understand why the market likes them,” said Bennett, a Minnesota native. “I still go back to I don’t think Mike Zimmer is that good a coach, and I don’t think Kirk Cousins is that good a quarterback. It’s always an adventure with the Vikings.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.