Sharp bettors pound draft position props on 100 players at Circa

Besides Mr. Irrelevant, the title bestowed upon the final player selected in the NFL draft, every other pick might be relevant to bettors at Circa.

That’s because there are 259 picks in the 2021 draft, and the downtown Las Vegas sportsbook has posted draft position over-under props on 100 players.

“We wanted to have a market on any player people know,” said Dylan Sullivan, the Circa risk supervisor who compiled the list.

There are 11 quarterbacks listed, led by Ohio State’s Justin Fields at 3½. Southern Methodist’s Shane Buechele and Texas’ Sam Ehlinger are each listed at 258½, which means bettors might have to sweat out those wagers until the penultimate pick of the seven-round, three-day draft from April 29 to May 1.

Bettors have pounded Fields to go over 3½, which has soared to -270 after the under opened at -200 amid speculation that the San Francisco 49ers would take him with the third pick.

“We juiced it to the under, but that took off the other way with everybody betting him over,” Sullivan said. “There are so many opinions if the Niners are going to take Mac Jones, Trey Lance or Justin Fields.”

Circa posted the props Saturday morning, at limits of $1,000 per wager, and has taken steady sharp action on them.

“It took a few minutes for our players to find them and then they started firing away. The first hour or two was pretty crazy,” Sullivan said. “We’ve already written more than last year. I would say the majority is definitely sharp bets, just because it’s an information thing.”

Biggest movers

The two biggest movers on the board have been quarterbacks Kellen Mond of Texas A&M and Davis Mills of Stanford.

Mond opened at 170½ and was bet down to 90½ before settling at 91½. Mills opened at 145 and was bet down to 60½ before climbing back to 65½. Sullivan said sharp bettors placed six limit bets apiece on Mond and Mills.

“They’ve been betting (Mond) under nonstop, and they bet (Mills) all the way down to the second round,” Sullivan said. “I opened 100 guys at numbers I thought were pretty accurate. Obviously the market disagreed with some of them. Personally, I think Mills is too low.”

The two biggest movers among wideouts have been Anthony Schwartz of Auburn and Amon-Ra St. Brown of Southern California.

St. Brown opened at 150½ and has been bet down to 100½, and Schwartz opened at 145½ and is down to 97½.

“There’s no other market on most of these guys to base it off of, so we’re moving extremely aggressively,” Sullivan said. “Overall, as a trend, everyone seems to be betting unders, especially the receivers under.

“There’s been really good two-way action on a handful of guys, like (Ja’Marr) Chase and (Kyle) Pitts. But for the most part, it’s been pretty one-sided.”

Sharp plays

Circa also posted 32 props on each team’s first or second pick, as well as index props, including the Raiders’ first selection and which team will draft Florida QB Kyle Trask.

Thirteen players are listed for the Raiders’ first pick, with USC tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker the 6-1 favorite, followed by Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore (+725), Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw (+780) and Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+780).

Sullivan said sharp bettors wagered on the field, or any player other than the 13 listed, which is the +250 favorite.

The New England Patriots and Chicago Bears are 7-1 co-favorites to draft Trask, and the Houston Texans (+785) are the third choice. But Sullivan said sharp bettors are banking on longer shots to select him.

“We’re kind of buried on the Seahawks, Browns and Chiefs,” he said.

Seattle is 35-1 to pick Trask, and Cleveland and Kansas City are each 40-1.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.