Sharp bettors pound NCAA Tournament opening lines
About 15 minutes after the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed Sunday, the South Point sportsbook posted lines on the first 32 games, and sharp bettors promptly fired away.
A few hours later, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews’ head was still spinning from all the action, as he recounted the biggest sharp plays and line moves.
“We wrote a ton of business,” he said. “We had a couple of guys at the counter betting $10,000 a whack, and guys were betting $3,000 a game on the app.”
In the biggest move, sharp bets on Loyola-Chicago — and its ever-present 102-year-old superfan, Sister Jean — moved the 10-seed from a 1½-point underdog to a 1½-point favorite over No. 7 seed Ohio State.
“We don’t do the seeding. We make the numbers,” Andrews said. “Pretty much every year, a 10 is favored over a seven or a nine over an eight.”
Bracket vs. books
There are three other higher seeds favored over lower seeds:
■ No. 10 San Francisco -1½ over No. 7 Murray State.
■ No. 9 Memphis -2 over No. 8 Boise State.
■ No. 11 Michigan -2½ over No. 6 Colorado State.
“An 11-seed shouldn’t be favored over a six-seed,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said.
Salmons noted that San Diego State was favored by 2½ over Colorado State in Friday’s Mountain West tournament and beat the Rams 63-58. Yet the Aztecs are an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Colorado State is No. 6.
“So that doesn’t make sense,” he said.
Another matchup that is at odds with the Las Vegas line is No. 4 Providence favored by only 2 over No. 13 South Dakota State.
“Providence has been so overrated by the press that ranks them high,” Salmons said. “We don’t pay attention to the rankings (that rates the Friars No. 11 in the AP Top 25 poll). It’s been like that all year. Everybody always looks at their spreads and asks, ‘Why are you so low on Providence?’”
Best bets
Professional sports bettor Paul Stone likes Summit League winner South Dakota State to beat Providence.
“The 3-pointer can be the great equalizer in college basketball, and nobody shoots it better than the Jackrabbits,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports), noting that they lead the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage at 44.2 percent. “Plus, Providence has looked average in its last eight games and appears ripe for the picking.”
Other sharp plays at the South Point are on Akron, which has dipped from a 16-point underdog to +14 against UCLA; Auburn, which has moved from -15½ to -16½ over Jacksonville State; Purdue, which has gone from -15½ to -16½ over Yale; and Colgate, which has moved from +9 to +7½ over Wisconsin.
Station Casinos also reported sharp action on Colgate +8. Salmons said he expects Colgate to be a popular public underdog, too.
“Because everyone knows Wisconsin is not good,” he said.
Station and Circa sportsbook reported sharp action on San Diego State, which is -2 over Creighton.
Circa also took sharp bets on Richmond +10 over Iowa, Memphis -2 over Boise State and Yale-Purdue under 144½.
Who’s No. 1?
Station also took a sharp play on Georgia State +25 over No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga, the biggest favorite on the board in the tournament, which tips off Tuesday with the First Four.
No. 1 seed Baylor is a 20-point favorite over Norfolk State, while No. 1 seeds Arizona and Kansas will await the winners of the First Four games.
Gonzaga is the +350 favorite at the SuperBook to win its first national title, followed by Arizona at 6-1, Kansas at 7-1 and Kentucky at 8-1. There are 12 teams with odds of less than 20-1 to win it all.
“This is one of the most wide-open years I can remember,” Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Grant Tucker said. “There is quality from top to bottom. I do expect teams like Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas and Kentucky to go pretty far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of those years where you see a bunch of upsets, especially in the first couple of rounds.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.