Weekend best bets: Experts make college, NFL picks

Las Vegas Review-Journal

1 year ago

FILE - Alabama quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, center, and Tua Tagovailoa have their picture taken du ... — FILE – Alabama quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, center, and Tua Tagovailoa have their picture taken during the NCAA college football national championship parade, Saturday, Jan. 20, 2018, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. The QBs who go head-to-head for the first time in the NFL when the Miami Dolphins visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, will forever be linked by their tenures under coach Nick Saban at Alabama. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

FILE – Alabama quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, left, and Jalen Hurts run a drill together at NCAA college football practice for the Sugar Bowl against Clemson, Thursday, Dec. 28, 2017, in New Orleans, La. The QBs who go head-to-head for the first time in the NFL when the Miami Dolphins visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, will forever be linked by their tenures under coach Nick Saban at Alabama. (Vasha Hunt/The Birmingham News via AP, File)

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) in action against the New York Jets during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in East Rutherford NJ. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

Tua Tagovailoa replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime of the 2018 College Football Playoff title game and sparked Alabama to a 26-23 comeback win over Georgia in overtime.

Five years later, Eagles quarterback Hurts and Dolphins quarterback Tagovailoa are two of the top four favorites to win the NFL MVP award, and their teams are two of the top four favorites to win the Super Bowl.

The former Crimson Tide teammates will square off in this weekend’s marquee matchup on “Sunday Night Football.”

Injury-riddled Philadelphia is a consensus 2½-point favorite over Miami, and the total is the highest on the board at 51½.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons like the Eagles with the caveat that some of their starters dealing with injuries, including tackle Lane Johnson, will play.

“If Lane Johnson is playing, I’m on the Eagles,” Salmons said. “It figures to be a good spot for the Eagles off that ridiculous loss (at the Jets).”

Johnson and defensive tackle Jalen Carter were limited participants in Thursday’s practice, while cornerback Darius Slay was a full participant.

“There are so many guys on the Eagles that are injured,” Whitelaw said. “If they all play, I love the Eagles. If some of them play, I like the Eagles. If none of them play, I don’t like the Eagles, period.”

I asked pro bettors, oddsmakers and handicappers for their weekend best bets and sharp plays.

RAVENS (-3) over Lions

In another matchup of Super Bowl contenders, Whitelaw and Salmons like Baltimore to cover as a small home favorite over Detroit.

“Detroit’s good but they’re stepping up a little bit, and it’s their second consecutive road game,” Whitelaw said. “I believe Baltimore is the better team in this spot.”

Said Salmons: “That game feels so much like the Eagles-Dolphins game. Detroit’s way ahead of where they thought they’d be now. … Baltimore’s offense is much better than what we’ve seen so far.”

VIKINGS (+7) over 49ers

Pro handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, who is 18-11-1 ATS (62 percent) in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, likes the Vikings to cover as 7-point home underdogs to the Niners on “Monday Night Football.”

San Francisco standouts Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are each day to day with injuries.

“The Vikings need to find success running the ball against a Niners defense that was carved up on the ground by the Browns,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “In their second road game in a row, the 49ers barely escape town with a victory. If at all.”

Sharp NFL sides

Salmons said there was sharp money on the Steelers +3½ and +3 at the Rams. Pittsburgh is coming off its bye week, and Los Angeles has had a rash of injuries at running back.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said he’s seen sharp play on the Patriots over the Bills, which has driven the number down from 9½ to as low as 8 at Circa Sports.

“That might be a product of how beat-up the Bills are on defense,” he said. “They may be without four starters this week.”

Sharp college sides

Salmons said the Westgate took sharp bets on several college games:

* Pittsburgh (+2) over Wake Forest (line now pick)

* Minnesota (+5) over Iowa (now 3½)

* Southern California (-6½) over Utah (now 7)

* Alabama-Tennessee Over 47½ (now 48½)

* Missouri (-6½) over South Carolina (now 7½)

Alabama (-8½) over Tennessee

Pro bettor Paul Stone believes Alabama will extract some measure of revenge against Tennessee after losing to the Vols 52-49 last season on a game-ending field goal.

“Tennessee is just not the same team offensively,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “(Quarterback) Joe Milton is not Hendon Hooker, and the Volunteers’ vertical passing attack lacks playmakers like Jalin Hyatt.”

Tennessee is averaging more than 100 fewer passing yards per game this year compared to last, Stone added. The Volunteers are relying more heavily on the ground game, running the ball on 56 percent of their offensive plays.

“Alabama allows only 3 yards per carry and hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for 70 yards this season,” Stone said. “I made the number 10, and I look for Alabama to win by double digits.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.