Weekend best bets: Experts make their college, pro picks
The Jaguars are London’s unofficial team after becoming the first NFL franchise to play back-to-back games there as they cruised to wins and covers over the Falcons and Bills.
But Jacksonville hasn’t fared as well this season in the U.S., where it’s 1-2 and looking for its first home win Sunday against the Colts.
Indianapolis (3-2, 3-2 ATS) lost its season opener 31-21 to the Jaguars (3-2, 3-2 ATS) and on Wednesday lost rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for at least the next four games with a shoulder injury.
But sharp bettors at the Westgate SuperBook are still banking on Indianapolis to cover as a 4-point underdog to Jacksonville, which opened at -5½.
“Jacksonville is coming back from two weeks in London and maybe it’s an overreaction to Richardson,” SuperBook director John Murray said.
Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew has been solid in all three of their wins, starting in a 22-19 overtime victory at Baltimore and twice winning in relief, including last week’s 23-16 triumph over the Titans.
Pro handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, who went 4-1 ATS last week and leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 17-7-1 ATS record (70.8 percent), said Indy is his best bet.
“Divisional acquaintances compete for first place, which is something the market may have expected from the Jags,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “What the market may not have anticipated was Colt vitality, despite the fact that star running back Jonathan Taylor just ponied up to play and be paid. But just as important has been the execution of Minshew.”
I asked bookmakers for their sharp plays and pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets.
BENGALS (-2½) over Seahawks
Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw played two games: Cincinnati (-2½) over Seattle and the Chargers (+3) over the Cowboys.
“It seems like (Bengals QB Joe) Burrow is getting a little bit healthier and Seattle is traveling to the East Coast,” he said. “I don’t think Burrow is 100 percent but he’s getting close. Cincinnati was one of the favorites to go to the Super Bowl. ”
The Bengals are coming off their first cover of the season in a 34-20 win at Arizona and can even their record at 3-3 with a victory.
CHARGERS (+2) over Cowboys
Whitelaw proclaimed Dallas “a fraud” last week while making the 49ers his best bet and is doubling down on the Chargers over the Cowboys at home on “Monday Night Football.” The line already has ticked down in favor of Los Angeles.
“You know my feelings on the Cowboys,” he said. “The Chargers are coming off a bye, (running back Austin) Ekeler’s coming back this week and (QB Justin) Herbert is recovered from the hand (injury).
“The one negative for the Chargers is they just don’t have a home field (advantage). I just think the Chargers are every bit as good as Dallas. And the Cowboys are a much better home team than they are on the road.”
Murray said the Westgate also took sharp action on the Texans +2½ over the Saints (now +1).
Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said his book took six-figure bets from respected bettors on the Lions -3 over the Buccaneers (now -3½) and on the Rams -6½ over the Cardinals (now -7).
Indiana-MICHIGAN Under 45½
Pro handicapper Scott Pritchard is tied for fourth place among 153 entries in the Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge with a 22-12-1 ATS mark. He’s also third in the Circa Friday Football Invitational (21-13-1 ATS). He likes Indiana-Michigan to go under the total, which is at 45½ after opening at 49½.
The Wolverines lead the nation in scoring defense (6.7 ppg).
”Defensively, Michigan is in the top 12 in eight statistical categories,” said Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com). “They will simply control the game and the scoreboard.”
OREGON STATE (-3½) over Ucla
Oregon State is 14-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2021 season and pro handicapper Paul Stone likes it to extend that trend against UCLA.
Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 275 yards and five touchdowns in last week’s 52-40 victory at Cal.
“Oregon State is a different team at home and D.J. Uiagalelei is coming off his best game as a Beaver,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “I think (tailback) Damien Martinez has a big game and Oregon State wins by a touchdown or more.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.