Weekend best bets: Pro bettors, bookmakers, handicappers make picks
The 49ers and Cowboys have squared off in six NFC title games, and the storied NFL franchises, who have won five Super Bowls each, will renew their rivalry on “Sunday Night Football.”
The 49ers, who eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs the past two seasons, are 3½-point home favorites and are up to -4 at multiple sportsbooks.
Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said a well-respected bettor wagered on San Francisco -3½, and professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said his only bet so far this week is on the Niners -3.
“Personally, I think the Cowboys are a fraud. They’re good, but I think the 49ers are the best team in football,” Whitelaw said. “(Oddsmakers are) almost saying on a neutral field, this is a pick’em. That’s just not right.Dallas has a pretty soft schedule. They beat a horrible Giants team, a horrible Jets team when Zach Wilson didn’t have a game under his belt, and they beat a depleted New England team. They couldn’t even beat Arizona.”
The Niners (4-0) and Eagles (4-0) are the NFL’s only unbeaten teams. San Francisco, which crushed the Cardinals 35-16 last week, has won 14 straight regular-season games and 10 straight home games, including playoffs.
I asked bookmakers for sharp plays and pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets:
Sharp plays
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said he took sharp action on the Lions -9½ over the Panthers (now -10), the Dolphins -11 over the Giants (now -11½) and the Cardinals +3½ over the Bengals (now +3).
Caesars sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said he took sharp money on the Vikings +4 over the Chiefs (now +3½), the Jets +2 over the Broncos (now +2½) and from the “sharpest of the sharps,” South Florida-UAB under 69 (now 68½).
Ravens (-4) over STEELERS
Pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk likes Baltimore to cover at Pittsburgh in a low-scoring game.
“The more painful it is to place a wager, it’s usually a good sign that you will cash your tickets,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “It’s normally a given to take the dog of 3 or more points when Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off, especially if the dog is getting points at home as the Steelers are this week.
“The Steelers are currently rated in the bottom five in both offense and defense, while needing their anemic offense to find success vs. the Ravens’ No. 2-ranked defense. Baltimore has been excelling while having to deal with a volume of injuries, but it looks like they will be getting several of those stars back this week.The model that I rely on says this game should be lined much higher, so I’m going to lay the points in this divisional matchup that is usually a tight affair.”
FALCONS (-1½) over Texans
Pro handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, who leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 13-6-1 ATS record (68.4 percent), likes Atlanta to cover as a small favorite over Houston.
“The overachieving Texans roll into Atlanta off a huge win against the Steelers, with a 2-2 record and tied for the AFC South division lead,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “The 2-2 Falcons have won both of their home games and were 3½-point favorites in last week’s look-ahead line at the Westgate. Today, we can grab those Dirty Birds at home under a field goal.”
Washington State (+3½) over UCLA
Texas-based pro bettor Paul Stone likes Washington State over UCLA on Saturday at the Rose Bowl.
He looks for second-year Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward to outplay UCLA’s true freshman QB Dante Moore.
“Washington State has already defeated a pair of top 20 teams, Wisconsin and Oregon State,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports), “and is on a mission after being left out of college football’s latest wave of realignment.”
Stone notes that UCLA is only 7-13 ATS as a home favorite under Chip Kelly.
Texas Tech (-1½) over BAYLOR
Salmons bet on the Red Raiders +1 over the Bears when the line opened.
“I can’t believe Texas Tech was an underdog. I just think Texas Tech is the better team,” he said. “I’ve watched Baylor play this year, and I can’t believe how bad they are. I thought they’d be a decent team this year.”
TEXAS A&M (Pick) over Alabama
Salmons bet on the Aggies +3½ when the line opened.
“I’m surprised it came as high as it did,” he said. “Alabama doesn’t really have much of a passing game. I’d be surprised if Texas A&M can’t keep the game under control defensively.
“Alabama is playing its second straight road game. It’s a good spot for A&M to take down Alabama at home.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.