Weekend best bets: Pro picks 9-2 last week, 29-13 on season
Love was in the air in Green Bay at the start of the season, as the Packers won two of their first three games while going 3-0 against the spread.
Quarterback Jordan Love threw for seven touchdowns and only one interception as the franchise made a seemingly smooth transition from the Aaron Rodgers era.
Love has regressed during a three-game losing streak (0-3 ATS) in which he’s thrown for only three TDs and six picks. But professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons expect the Pack to bounce back Sunday at Lambeau Field against the Vikings, who are 1½-point favorites.
“It’s a classic scenario. The public’s going to bet on Minnesota because they just saw them beat the 49ers,” Whitelaw said. “I’m expecting them to have a little bit of a letdown off their big win, and that short week is important.
“These teams are familiar with one another. I think it’s a close game, and Green Bay comes home and they win this game.”
The Packers are 2-4, but three of their losses have been by one, two and four points. Whitelaw also noted that the line has shifted by four points. Green Bay was -2½ before Minnesota’s win and is now +1½.
“That game really seems like it sets up perfectly,” Salmons said. “Minnesota beating the Niners on ‘Monday Night Football’ and Green Bay losing (three) games in a row and now it’s a pick’em. I think you’ll get Green Bay’s best shot here.”
I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.
The picks in this column went 9-2 ATS last week and are 29-13 (69 percent) this season.
Sharp plays
The SuperBook and Caesars took sharp money on the Seahawks -3 over the Browns, who are without quarterback Deshaun Watson. The line is now -4.
Caesars and Station Casinos took sharp action on the Saints +1 (now pick) over the Colts and the Broncos +8½ (now 7) over the Chiefs.
Kansas City has defeated Denver 16 straight times, most recently 19-8 in Week 6. But the previous three meetings were decided by an average of 4.3 points.
“Getting more than a touchdown is something to look at,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Laying big numbers on the road in the NFL, do so at your own peril.”
Caesars took a $100,000 sharp bet on the Panthers +3 (still 3) over the Texans.
The SuperBook and Stations took sharp bets on the Patriots +10 (now 9½) against the Dolphins.
New England, which upset Buffalo last week, lost 24-17 to Miami at home in Week 2.
“Miami is a little banged-up defensively,” Salmons said. “If the Patriots play the right way and don’t turn the ball over, it’s hard to win by a huge margin. (New England coach Bill) Belichick knows how to take away your best player and make them move the ball.”
Jaguars-STEELERS Under 41
Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, tied for second in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge at 19-15-1 ATS, expects the Steelers and Jaguars to stay under the total, which has dipped to 41.
“Two stout defensive clubs compete in Pittsburgh, where there will be a 65 percent chance of rain coupled with winds up to 15 mph,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “The Steelers’ defense has been standing up, while their 24th-ranked offense (by the DVOA metric) is struggling.
“The Jags come in with 10 days rest and more team balance and keep this game very close and low-scoring.”
UTAH (+6½) over Oregon
Utah is coming off an emotionally charged 34-32 victory at Southern California and now hosts eighth-ranked Oregon, with the victor remaining in the thick of the Pac-12 race.
With ESPN’s “College GameDay” on hand in Salt Lake City, Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone believes the Utes can keep it close against the high-flying Ducks, who are favored by 6½ points.
“Injuries have perhaps taken a heavier toll on Utah this season than any team in America,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “But I’m not sure there’s a tougher and grittier team in college football than the Utes. (Utah coach) Kyle Whittingham and his staff have done a masterful job of mixing and matching personnel and keeping this team in the sport’s upper echelon.”
Since the start of the 2013 season, Utah is 19-11 ATS as an underdog.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.