Weekend best bets: SuperBook VP looks to extend 45-20-5 mark
The long-suffering Lions turned into a cash machine last season after burning bettors’ money for years.
Detroit won 15 of 19 games while going 16-3 against the spread during a sizzling stretch that started Week 9 last year. It continued through the Lions’ 41-38 road win against the Chargers in Week 10 this season.
That hot streak has suddenly turned cold. The Lions are 1-3 ATS the last four weeks. Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay still expects Detroit to bounce back at home against Denver on Saturday.
Kornegay is on a phenomenal run in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, going 45-20-5 ATS (69.2 percent). That record would be good for second place in the Westgate SuperContest and 12th in the Circa Sports Million.
“It’s the third straight road game for the Broncos. Historically, that’s a very tough spot for the visiting team,” said Kornegay, a Denver native and lifelong Broncos fan. “I remember when the schedule came out, I thought this game is going to be a good spot for the Lions.”
Detroit lost 28-13 at Chicago last week. The Lions remain in first place in the NFC North at 9-4.
“I would expect them to be very focused for this game after falling to the Bears, not to mention they’re back indoors,” Kornegay said.
The picks in this column are 65-44-3 ATS (59.6 percent) this season.
Sharp plays
Kornegay said the SuperBook took sharp action on three of the biggest NFL underdogs on the board in the Patriots +9½, +9 and +8½ (now +7½), Jets +9½ and +9 (now +8½) and Cardinals +13½ and +12½ (now +12½).
He also reported sharp interest in the Steelers +2½ and +1½ (now +1½).
Jacksonville State/Louisiana under 58½, New Orleans Bowl
With bowl season kicking off Saturday, we asked Review-Journal College Challenge champion Dana Lane (37-26-2 ATS) and others for their best bets.
“There may be some nerves for Jacksonville State, which is playing in its first FBS bowl game,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “But more concerning is Louisiana being down to its third-string QB.
“I don’t think we’ll see consistent cohesion on offense from either team.”
Miami (Ohio)/Appalachian State over 42½, Cure Bowl
“We’re getting a good number after opening at 47½,” Lane said. “Both running games will make a big enough impact to push this game over.
“App State has shown that they may not need much from Miami to push this over.”
New Mexico State (-3½), New Mexico Bowl
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes quarterback Diego Pavia to lead New Mexico State over Fresno State in Saturday’s game in Albuquerque, N.M.
“New Mexico State would appear to have the motivation advantage and is playing in its home state,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Diego Pavia is a gamer, and I look for him to come up big.”
Washington (+4), Sugar Bowl
Looking ahead to the College Football Playoff semifinals, Stone likes undefeated Washington to upset Texas on New Year’s Day.
“Texas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but it’s somewhat vulnerable in the back of its defense,” Stone said. “That obviously plays to Washington’s primary strength, which is its passing game.”
Boise State (+4½), LA Bowl
Former RJ Bowl Challenge champ Doug Fitz likes Boise State to cover against UCLA in Saturday’s game at SoFi Stadium.
“Boise State is 13-7 straight up in bowl games since 1999. They just took the interim tag off of coach Spencer Danielson, which indicates the confidence they show in him,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “The players seemingly like their new coach, so they’ll play hard for him. UCLA has nothing to play for and I think they couldn’t care less about this minor bowl game.”
Northwestern (+6½), Las Vegas Bowl
Fitz also likes Northwestern to cover against Utah in their Dec. 23 game at Allegiant Stadium.
“Northwestern had an amazing turnaround from last season and I believe this game is much more meaningful for them than it is for Utah, which had much higher expectations,” he said.
Fitz noted Northwestern is 8-4 ATS and fits a system in which bowl-game underdogs that improved by six wins or more over the prior season are on a 17-7 ATS run.
Mississippi (+3½), Peach Bowl
Former RJ Bowl Challenge champ Frank Carulli’s best bet is Mississippi over Penn State in their Dec. 30 game in Atlanta.
“Ole Miss arrives with all hands on deck, trying to snap a two-game bowl losing streak, one of the few flaws during Lane Kiffin’s four years as coach,” said Carulli (Xpressbet.com). “Penn State arrives without defensive coordinator Manny Diaz (now Duke’s coach), defensive standout Chop Robinson and, possibly, two other key defectors. Grab the 3½ points now.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.