Breaking down the UNLV-New Mexico game

Both teams are going with backups, with UNLV’s Armani Rogers (toe) and New Mexico’s Tevaka Tuioti (shoulder) out. The Rebels’ Max Gilliam receives his first career start, and maybe he will provide a more accurate passing game, though Rogers’ ability to make plays with his feet (488 yards, 6.9 average) will be sorely missed. New Mexico’s Sheriron Jones is a former Tennessee player who led a furious rally that fell just short Saturday against Liberty.

■ Advantage: New Mexico

Running backs

Rogers’ absence could have a tremendous effect on Lexington Thomas (465 yards, 5.9 average), who figures to receive most of New Mexico’s defensive attention. It’s up to Thomas and UNLV’s deep roster of backs to find a way to make plays. Tyrone Owens (318, 4.1) is a good back, but he’s not Thomas.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Receivers

UNLV’s receivers have not distinguished themselves, but that isn’t necessarily their fault given Rogers’ accuracy problems. They need to do a better job, though, of separating themselves from defensive backs. The Lobos average 16.0 yards per catch compared to UNLV’s 10.5, and Elijah Lilly averages 17.5 yards on 11 catches.

■ Advantage: New Mexico

Offensive line

The timing couldn’t be much better for the Rebels to get healthier up front. They own one of the Mountain West’s finest lines. New Mexico, led by All-Mountain West candidate Aaron Jenkins, has allowed six sacks. But the Rebels’ ability to create holes for the running game, averaging 6.3 yards, makes their line truly stand out.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Defensive line

Opponents have been able to run on the Lobos, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Rebels have been able to get pressure from their front four, registering 6½ tackles for loss. And that doesn’t include linebacker Gabe McCoy, who often lines up on the line and has made 7½ tackles for loss.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Linebackers

McCoy is playing at an all-conference level and leading a linebackers unit that has combined for 12½ tackles for loss, including 5½ sacks. Evahelotu Tohi has played well for the Lobos, making 27 tackles, including three for loss, and an interception.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Secondary

The Rebels allow 210.5 yards passing per game, which is fourth in the conference. They also have held opposing quarterbacks to a 48.1 completion percent, which tops the Mountain West. New Mexico is second to last in giving up a 298.5-yard average.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Special teams

UNLV is going with new punt and kick returners, though Hayes Hicken averages 47.8 yards per punt. The Lobos have received solid play throughout and has been more consistent with all facets of special teams.

■ Advantage: New Mexico

Intangibles

The pressure is on UNLV to win because the Rebels’ bowl hopes will be in serious jeopardy if they don’t come through. But the Lobos aren’t exactly playing with loads of confidence, and they have little video of Gilliam. Being at home also is huge for the Rebels.

■ Advantage: UNLV

Handicapper’s take

■ Bruce Marshall (goldsheet.com):

UNLV 42, New Mexico 26 — If New Mexico coach Bob Davie is smart, he’ll own the vulture concessions in Albuquerque after allowing Liberty to light up his defense with 42 points in first half in front of the home folks last week. The Lobos also now are minus Tuioti, who is joined on injured list by big-play UNLV’s Rogers. But the Rebels have confidence in serviceable backup Gilliam, and if Davie’s defense could be torched by the Falwells, well-rested UNLV and its breakaway ground game could do real damage at Sam Boyd Stadium.

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