Rodgers’ injury causes 10-point line adjustment on Packers-Saints game
Believe it or not, the NFC is up in the air.
Who could it be that represents the NFC in the Super Bowl now that Aaron Rodgers is out with a potential season-ending injury?
With apologies to “Believe It or Not,” the song from Rodgers’ State Farm commercial that’s stuck in our head, it could be just about anybody.
“It’s wide open right now,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “The frontrunners in the NFC are the Eagles and the Vikings. And the Saints, Panthers and Rams are right below them.
“You can’t rule out the Packers, either. If it’s a six-week injury and they can stay in the hunt, all they have to do is get in (the playoffs). They’re still a real dangerous team.”
Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone in the first quarter of Green Bay’s game at Minnesota. He was replaced by third-year pro Brett Hundley, who threw three interceptions in a 23-10 loss.
The Vikings, who closed as 3-point underdogs, were one of eight underdogs to pull off outright upsets Sunday in what was a rough day for the betting public and a great day for Las Vegas sports books.
“It was one of the better days of the year, for sure,” Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci said.
NFL Sunday went to ’dogs
Underdogs finished 10-2 against the spread, capped by the previously winless New York Giants’ stunning 23-10 upset of the Denver Broncos, who closed as 13½-point home favorites on “Sunday Night Football.”
“It was a good day,” CG Technology sports book director Jason Simbal said before Sunday night’s game. “If the Giants can cover, it will be really, really good.”
One CG Technology bettor lost a six-figure wager on Denver and another lost a six-figure wager on the Chiefs, who mustered only 6 total yards in the first half of their first loss, a 19-13 home setback to the Steelers as 3½-point favorites.
The books won their biggest decisions on the Steelers, Vikings and Dolphins, who upset the Falcons 20-17 as 13½-point underdogs.
Atlanta came off its bye in top Super Bowl form, blowing a 17-0 halftime lead to Miami, which scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to turn all Falcons teasers and money-line bets into trash.
Big favorites burn money
There were four favorites Sunday of at least nine points. They went 0-4 against the spread with two outright losses.
The 49ers, who were getting 11 points from the Redskins, erased an early 17-0 deficit behind backup rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard in a 26-24 loss to Washington. San Francisco is 0-6 overall but 4-2 ATS after losing their NFL-record fifth straight game by three points or less.
The Jets, getting nine points from the Patriots, blew an early 14-0 lead and got a late field goal to cover in a 24-17 loss.
The one wager that has remained money for bettors in what has been an unpredictable NFL season is fading the Browns, who failed to cover as 7-point underdogs in a 33-17 loss to the Texans. Supposedly sharp money on Cleveland drove the line down from 10½ points. But the Browns built a bonfire with that cash as quarterback Kevin Hogan threw three interceptions.
Rodgers’ injury moves line 10 points
Esposito said Rodgers is worth at least seven points to the spread in Packers’ games.
“When (Tom) Brady or (Drew) Brees weren’t in the lineup, it was at least a touchdown,” he said. “Rodgers is on top of the point-spread chart in terms of his impact to his team.”
Simbal agreed Rodgers has the biggest impact on the point spread of any player in the league, noting there was already a 10-point adjustment made to Green Bay’s game Sunday against New Orleans at Lambeau Field.
The Packers opened as 6-point favorites on the early line. After Rodgers’ injury, the Saints were made 4-point favorites.
Green Bay also moved from the 5-1 second choice to win the Super Bowl to the 16-1 seventh choice with the Vikings. The Patriots are the 4-1 favorites, followed by the Steelers and Chiefs at 6-1 and the Eagles at 8-1.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
