Twisting journey to Kentucky Derby begins in earnest
With the flipping of the calendar, horseplayers and newly turned 3-year-old thoroughbreds now embark in earnest on what undoubtedly will be a bumpy, twisting journey to the Kentucky Derby.
The first steps of the new year will take place Saturday with the Sham Stakes (Grade 3) at Santa Anita and the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park, both worth $100,000.
The Sham, to be run at a mile on the main track at Santa Anita, features the highly regarded Bob Baffert trainee McKinzie, winner via disqualification of the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 1) in his last start and the 3-5 morning line favorite.
The race, worth 10 Derby points to the winner, is his to lose, but there are other intriguing possibilities in the field of seven. The Sham is one of our #RJhorseracing featured races this week.
At Gulfstream, the Mucho Macho Man Stakes will see the return of highly regarded Dak Attack for trainer Dale Romans. The winner of the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes will face seven other 3-year-olds, including two Todd Pletcher-trained runners — Coltandmississippi and Bal Harbour — and the Chad Brown-trained Mask.
The first unexpected turn on the road to Louisville was dealt by the bitter winter weather strafing the East Coast, which forced the New York Racing Association to postpone the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct scheduled for New Year’s Day. The race, expected to be headlined by two-time stakes winner Firenze Fire, has been rescheduled for Jan. 13.
The same day, racing fans are likely to see California invader Instilled Regard contest the LeComte Stakes (Grade 3) at the Fair Grounds. The runner-up in the Los Al Futurity is listed as probable for the race, which also is expected to attract the Steve Asmussen-trained Principe Guilherme and the filly Wonder Gadot.
#RJhorseracing featured races
The #RJhorseracing handicapping corps is zeroed in this week on the Sham Stakes and the San Gabriel Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, the latter a 1 1/8-mile test for older horses on the turf course two races later.
In the Sham, our handicappers sided with favored McKinzie, with stablemate Mourinho (4-1) and My Boy Jack (12-1) rounding out the top three. But a number of players made the point that 3-5 is tough to take on a horse that has only run twice and still has lots to prove.
“McKinzie may be overhyped … and I don’t like him not winning while odds-on (although he was DQ’d into a win),” wrote Ponypicker Joe, a regular contributor.
I agree. That’s why I’ll take a shot with My Boy Jack. Kent Desormeaux rides for brother Keith, who switches the colt from turf to dirt. The son of Creative Cause has been competitive in graded stakes company on the lawn and should get a solid pace with a couple of stretching sprinters entered.
In the San Gabriel, our pack prognosticators also settled on the 3-1 favorite Itsinthepost, though He Will (4-1) was a close second choice, followed by Top of the Game (8-1).
I’ll take another flyer in what looks like a wide-open race with Editore (15-1). Trainer Paulo Lobo has figured out the Brazilian import, who steps up off two straight wins.
Join us next week as we tackle the toughest racing puzzles we can find. Simply drop me an email or follow me on Twitter to get in on the action.
Contact Mike Brunker mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Sham Stakes analysis
My Boy Jack has the most experience of any of the Sham Stakes entrants, having run six times, all of one of them on turf. In his career debut last June, his only previous start on dirt, My Boy Jack ran poorly and finished sixth. However, the colt has come a long way since and is bred to run just as well on dirt as he has recently on grass. Additionally, the team of trainer Keith Desormeaux and his brother, jockey Kent Desormeaux, have done very well over the past two years, winning at better than a 25 percent rate in dirt routes.
Shivermetimbers tried two-turns for the first time in his third career start in November and earned his first win in very game fashion. He was flattered when the runner-up from that November 23 race came right back to win his next race. Even though Shivermetimbers ran on or near the lead from start to finish in that race, his Equibase pace figure of 88 in combination with his final time figure of 100 suggests he does not the lead to win. With it likely Mourinho, who is stretching out to two-turns for the first time and adding blinkers, will set a very fast pace as he will be challenged early by All Out Blitz (who is also stretching out), Shivermetimbers could be in a perfect stalking spot to post the upset.
McKinzie will go heavily favored in the Sham just as he was when the prohibitive 1 to 2 favorite in the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he finished second but was placed first via disqualification of winner Solomini. After being passed in the late stages of the Futurity, blinkers come off McKinziein the hope he will fight in the late stages and that could certainly help his chances to win his third race in a row.
My Selections:
My Boy Jack
Shivermetimbers
McKinzie
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
