Conservative Eagles should fly under their Super Bowl point total prop

In the AFC championship game, Patriots coach Bill Belichick went all-in to stop the Jaguars’ running game and make Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles beat them.

Professional sports bettor Erin Rynning (Sportsmemo.com) expects Belichick to employ a similar game plan in Super Bowl LII against the Eagles and backup quarterback Nick Foles.

That’s one reason Rynning is betting on Philadelphia’s total points prop to go under 21½ at even money.

“Everyone was so down on Foles at the end of the regular season and all of a sudden he’s Tom Brady Jr. against the Vikings?” Rynning said. “Philadelphia will make the game as conservative as possible. I still feel they want to put the game on their defense and their running game. I’d be surprised if they come out and open things up.

“At 21½, I feel it takes 23 to beat me. I feel pretty decent about it.”

Rynning (@ersports1) also likes two other props:

Nelson Algohor longest reception: Over 16½ yards (minus 110)

“Algohor is the fastest guy on the team. One thing the Eagles will try to use is their speed.”

First to 100 yards passing, Brady or Foles?: Brady (minus 140)

“I think the Eagles will be a bit more conservative. One question I have on the Eagles is their secondary. New England will come out and throw the ball and test them.”

Seven more prop plays from handicapper Ted Sevransky (Sportsmemo.com, @teddy_covers) and myself:

Sevransky’s plays:

Total number of different players to have a pass attempt: Under 2½ (minus 200)

Nobody other than a quarterback has thrown a pass for either team all year. I’m not expecting either coaching staff to break out some crazy play here, and not have their quarterbacks throwing the football. As long as we can avoid a quarterback injury, this one has “no sweat” written all over it.

Rushing attempts by LeGarrette Blount: Under 7½ (minus 110)

Rushing yards by Blount: Under 27½ (minus 110)

Longest rush by Blount: Under 9½ (minus 110)

Blount has fallen out of favor in the postseason after leading the Eagles in rushing in the regular season. He’s had just 15 carries for 40 yards in two cold-weather games where the Eagles were playing with a lead — ideal circumstances for his style. I like him to go under in attempts, rushing yards and longest rush.

Dewey’s plays:

Receptions by Danny Amendola: Over 4½ (minus 110)

Receiving yards by Amendola: Over 54½ (minus 110)

Amendola has become Brady’s security blanket in the playoffs. He had seven catches for 84 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in New England’s 24-20 comeback win over the Jaguars and had 11 catches for 112 yards in a 35-14 divisional playoff victory over the Titans. Amendola also had eight receptions for 78 yards in last year’s Super Bowl win over the Falcons.

Dion Lewis receptions: Over 4½ (plus 145)

Lewis has had at least five catches in four straight games and five of six. The shifty running back had nine receptions in New England’s playoff win over Tennessee and seven against Jacksonville. Brady should throw a handful of passes to Lewis out of the backfield to keep the Eagles’ defense honest.

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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.