Final Four semifinal matchups in Minneapolis

No. 1 Virginia (33-3) vs. No. 5 Auburn (30-9)

When: 3:09 p.m. Saturday

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

TV/Radio: KLAS-8/KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)

Line: Virginia -6; total: 131

How they got here: A year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to fall to a 16, Virginia has turned its nightmare into a fairy tale, sweeping through the South Region with wins over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon and Purdue. Auburn reached its first Final Four out of the Midwest Region, first snapping the 19-game win streak of New Mexico State before running through a trio of blue bloods in fourth-seeded Kansas, No. 1 North Carolina and No. 2 Kentucky.

Virginia will win if: It makes shots. Surprised? Don’t be. The Cavaliers again have one of the nation’s best defenses with their pack line approach of jamming the lane and denying cuts — yeah, I saw Purdue star Carsen Edwards score 42 against the Cavs in the Elite Eight. But it still should control tempo. Nobody can force Virginia to play faster than it desires. But success depends on Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome delivering enough offense. Did you know Virginia is ranked second nationally in adjusted offense? It averages about 71 points and probably will need at least that to win.

Auburn will win if: It somehow holds its own on the boards. Making 3-pointers is an obvious need. Auburn has to continue its torrid pace of shooting 39 percent on 3s in its past 12 games, averaging 12 3s an outing during that stretch. But the Tigers, already undersized, are without star sophomore Chuma Okeke and his 6.8 rebound average. They can’t get dominated on the glass at both ends and expect to have any chance of upsetting Virginia. As much as guards on each side will decide the outcome, those in the post could have almost as big an impact.

Matchup to watch: Guy against Bryce Brown. This is when you really hope great shooters find rhythm. Things could get electric. Guy struggled most of the tournament before getting hot from 3-point range against Purdue. Brown is 15 of 32 on 3s in the tournament. Final Four sightlines in a football stadium can be tough on shooters.

Possible unsung hero: Anfernee McLemore. Sure, the Auburn forward averages only 6.6 points and 3.8 rebounds, but for a team that is already lacking depth up front and weak on the defensive boards, McLemore using his athleticism around the rim to match the likes of Virginia junior Mamadi Diakite might prove far more significant than imagined.

Key stat: Virginia forces turnovers on 25 percent of an opponent’s possessions. Auburn turns the ball over 14.7 percent of the time. Which side bends more?

Quotable: “Adversity, it reveals character. Adversity is really hard to go through. So therefore, when you’re going through something really hard, your character gets revealed, and I think that’s what we’re seeing here (with Virginia). They accepted, and they were accountable, and they went about their business to try and see if they could be good again. It’s a great story.” — Auburn coach Bruce Pearl, on the response of Virginia after falling to a 16 seed last year.

Prediction: Virginia 71, Auburn 65

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No. 2 Michigan State (32-6) vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (30-6)

When: Approximately 5:49 p.m. Saturday

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

TV/Radio: KLAS-8/KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)

Line: Michigan State -2½; total: 132½

How they got here: Having felt shunned by the selection committee as a No. 2 seed in the East Region with No. 1 overall Duke, the Spartans beat Bradley, Minnesota and Louisiana State before sending the Blue Devils and Zion Williamson home. Texas Tech, an Elite Eight team last year, reached its first Final Four after wins over Northern Kentucky, Buffalo, Michigan and top-seed Gonzaga in the West Region.

Michigan State will win if: Its frontcourt gains a physical edge. This is more blue collar stuff from the Spartans, ranked fifth nationally in total rebounds and facing a Texas Tech team that hasn’t been able to keep anyone not named Buffalo off the glass during the tournament. Kenny Goins. Aaron Henry. Xavier Tillman. Nick Ward. The Spartans again roll out a rotation of bodies that are hard to block out at either end. Texas Tech ranks 236th nationally in offensive rebounding. If the Spartans can control Texas Tech big man Tariq Owens around the rim, they will hold a big edge.

Texas Tech will win if: It keeps Michigan State from converting in transition. The Red Raiders have an elite half-court defense, but if it can’t make shots and force the Spartans to spend the evening taking the ball out of the net, things could get away from coach Chris Beard’s team. Texas Tech is far better offensively now than it was to begin the season, and while ranked in the top 10 nationally, Michigan State’s defense is more solid than aggressive. The Red Raiders will get scoring opportunities. They need to convert them. This has all the makings of a grind-it-out game, one Texas Tech can win if it isn’t constantly chasing the Spartans off misses.

Matchup to watch: Cassius Winston against Jarrett Culver. The game’s two best players probably won’t guard each other, but the hopes and dreams of advancing to Monday’s final rests largely on them for each team. How will the junior Winston (19.0 ppg, 7.8 apg in tournament) handle Texas Tech’s no-middle drive defense in terms of finding teammates? How will the sophomore Culver (18.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg this season), one of the nation’s more versatile players, respond to a focused defensive effort against him, led by the Spartans’ Aaron Henry and Matt McQuaid?

Possible unsung hero: Davide Moretti. The family of Texas Tech’s sophomore guard traveled from Italy to watch last week’s West Region semifinal and final, and if there is one player who can now make all the difference in what can be an extremely close game, it’s one who shoots 92.2 percent from the free-throw line, second best nationally. He also makes 46.3 percent on 3s, so several of those wouldn’t hurt, either. This much is certain: All of Bologna, Italy, will be watching.

Key stat: Michigan State has a turnover margin of minus 2.5, and Texas Tech is a plus 3.4. If the Spartans team that scored 24 points off Duke turnovers in the Elite Eight again capitalizes at such a rate, they advance. If the Red Raiders continue to value possessions, they probably do.

Quotable: “The hay is almost in the barn. We’re ready to go. I’m sure they are, too. It’s not easy to get here, man. Each season is a long journey. But satisfied? I’m never satisfied. Once you get here and win a national championship, it’s all you want to do and get back. I still have bigger fish to fry, bigger things to do.” — Michigan State coach Tom Izzo.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Texas Tech 64