Handicapper bases prop bets on Bill Belichick’s Super Bowl history

The Las Vegas Review-Journal has given handicapper Brian Blessing — host of Sportsbook Radio and Vegas Hockey Hotline on KSHP-AM (1400) — a mythical bankroll of $500 to wager on Super Bowl LI prop bets.

It’s now time to play the game within the game.

We know the Patriots are 3-point favorites over the Falcons and the total is 59. How mundane.

There’s nothing like watching a Super Bowl in Las Vegas, where a pedestrian 4-yard run can produce a roar in the middle of the second quarter like someone had just won the game. Someone did indeed win, cashing one of the 400-plus props that reside on wagering boards around the valley.

The focus of one’s approach to playing props should begin with the actual belief in how the game will be played from start to finish. I realize every game is a snowflake in terms of its unique nature, but history has a funny way of repeating itself.

$100, Devonta Freeman (Falcons) total rushing yards (over 50½, minus-110)

$100, Tevin Coleman (Falcons) total receiving yards (over 33½, minus-110)

$60, Austin Hooper (Falcons) total receiving yards (over 11½, minus-110)

New England coach Bill Belichick has a significant database over the years to dissect. I’m actually going back to Super Bowl XXV to help formulate an opinion here. There are similarities between Atlanta’s high-powered offense and Buffalo’s unit that Belichick contained in the Giants’ 20-19 upset in 1991.

Coach Bill Parcells got all the credit, but it was Belichick, the defensive coordinator, who devised a game plan that befuddled Bills quarterback Jim Kelly, who called his own plays. The Giants played a game of keep-away, and Kelly repeatedly threw into nickel and dime coverage, getting his wide receivers killed in the process. At halftime, the light bulb went off, and running back Thurman Thomas was featured, producing 81 yards on seven carries and 190 yards from scrimmage for the game.

Another parallel would be the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” team that Belichick frustrated in the Patriots’ 20-17 upset in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002. The one player who racked up yards was running back Marshall Faulk, who rushed for 76 yards and caught 54 yards worth of passes.

Belichick’s approach to the Super Bowl always has been defense first. History tells us that, ideally, he won’t want to get involved in a track meet. Therefore, the underneath options with the Falcons’ running backs and tight ends will be at the forefront of my focus in prop bets.

$60, Will the Patriots score a rushing TD in the first half? (Yes, plus-115)

The Patriots are minus-270 to score a rushing touchdown in the game, but plus-115 is offered for that score to occur in the first 30 minutes. The price is right. Running back LeGarrette Blount can hammer it in, Dion Lewis can bust a long run, and Tom Brady is the master of the quarterback sneak.

The shortest touchdown is always under 1½ yards (minus-170). This prop will have you rooting for a pass interference call against the Falcons in the end zone.

$100, Logan Ryan (Patriots) total tackles and assists (over 6½, minus-120)

Based on Belichick’s philosophy and recent history, let’s target a defensive prop for the Pats. Defensive back Logan Ryan has recorded seven or more solo and assisted tackles in five of the past six games. He’s going to be busy in this game.

$80, Alex Ovechkin (Capitals) shots on goal (minus-½, minus-160) over Matt Ryan TD passes and interceptions

The creativity for props that cross over to other sports is always amazing. You have to sort out multiple scenarios to cash a single ticket. Lets turn to hockey, where Washington’s Alex Ovechkin has been a regular on prop sheets in recent years. On Sunday, the Capitals host the Kings, as both teams play the second of back-to-back games. Ovechkin will face a potentially tired Los Angeles defense. Ryan’s TD prop is 2½, with under the favorite. Let’s give him two TD passes and two interceptions. Ovechkin is averaging a little less than four shots on goal a game, but I’ll side with the Russian sniper at home. He can get three shots on goal during one good power play.

Enjoy the game and make sure to not miss a play because it could be the one that makes your day.