NFL betting breakdown — Week 14
Bruce Marshall, Goldsheet.com, @BruceAMarshall
Ravens (10-2) at Bills (9-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Ravens -6, 44
Analysis: Last week’s escape against the 49ers reminded everyone that Baltimore indeed can be challenged and is just the sort of assignment undervalued Buffalo will embrace. The Bills responded to the national stage in a big way on Thanksgiving at Dallas, and Buffalo’s gnarly defense and a probable Niagara chill can slow Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.
By the numbers: The Ravens are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games. … The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and 4-0-1 in their past five as an underdog.
Pick: Ravens 20, Bills 19
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Redskins (3-9) at Packers (9-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Packers -13, 42½
Analysis: Don’t look now, but the hottest team in the NFC East might be the Redskins, with a now-healthy Derrius Guice teaming with Adrian Peterson to form a nice ground attack that rushed for 248 yards at Carolina. That has made for a bit of a softer landing for rookie QB Dwayne Haskins. The Packers took awhile to put away the Giants last week and haven’t had a truly easy game in more than a month.
By the numbers: The Redskins have covered four of their last six games. … The under is 8-5 in Redskins games since late 2018.
Pick: Packers 24, Redskins 16
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Broncos (4-8) at Texans (8-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Texans -9, 42½
Analysis: Denver coach Vic Fangio is scheming the Broncos’ defense well enough to give Denver (6-2 ATS in its last eight games) a look most Sundays. But QB Drew Lock still is learning on the fly and will have to deal with Romeo Crennel’s well-disguised coverages that have unnerved rookie quarterbacks before.
By the numbers: Denver is on a 16-5 under run since mid 2018. … The under is 12-5 in Houston home games since late 2017.
Pick: Texans 20, Broncos 13
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49ers (10-2) at Saints (10-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -2, 44½
Analysis: Sean Payton can use the next month to rid his Saints of some of their recent bad habits (among those a slew of penalties and dropped passes). But they’ll need a cleaner effort to outscore the 49ers, who should have convinced any remaining doubters after their near miss against red-hot Baltimore following a dominating win over the Packers.
By the numbers: The 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS on the road this season. … The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.
Pick: 49ers 27, Saints 19
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Bengals (1-11) at Browns (5-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Browns -7, 41½
Analysis: Now that QB Andy Dalton has taken back the wheel for the offense, I’m less scared to back Cincinnati. The Bengals’ revived defense pressured Sam Darnold into oblivion last Sunday. That’s bad news for the erratic Browns if they can’t protect QB Baker Mayfield better than last week (five sacks against the Steelers).
By the numbers: The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a true visitor. … Cincinnati has covered five straight in Cleveland and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games in the series.
Pick: Bengals 20, Browns 17
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Panthers (5-7) at Falcons (3-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Falcons -3½, 47
Analysis: We’ll see how the Panthers react to the firing of coach Ron Rivera. But QB Kyle Allen seems to have hit the proverbial wall, the defense got strafed by the Redskins for 248 rushing yards last week and recent efforts suggest the Falcons are still playing hard.
By the numbers: Atlanta has won and covered the last four in the series, including a 29-3 win at Charlotte on Nov. 17. … The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 17
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Lions (3-8-1) at Vikings (8-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Vikings -13, 43½
Analysis: It’s worth noting that Matthew Stafford’s subs at quarterback, David Blough and Jeff Driskel (now on injured reserve), have at least given the Lions a chance in recent weeks before the defense inevitably failed. Coming off a draining Monday nighter at Seattle and having labored against the likes of the Redskins and Broncos lately at home, I’m not sure I want to lay a heavy price with the Vikings.
By the numbers: The Lions broke a six-game spread losing streak on Thanksgiving, but have not covered their last three road games. … The Vikings have covered the last four in the series.
Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 17
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Dolphins (3-9) at Jets (4-8)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jets -5, 46
Analysis: After last week’s stinker at Cincinnati, we’re reminded that the Jets need at least another offseason of roster upgrades before threatening respectability. The Dolphins have beaten the Jets once, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has led Miami to wins in three of his last five starts.
By the numbers: The Dolphins have won outright the last four series meetings and have covered six of their past eight games.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
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Colts (6-6) at Buccaneers (5-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Buccaneers -3½, 46½
Analysis: Can we trust the Buccaneers to continue the recent uptick that has seen them cover three of their last four games? Bruce Arians finally seems to be getting through to QB Jameis Winston, whose efforts have improved. The Colts still are missing the field-screeching dimension of injured WR T.Y. Hilton.
By the numbers: The Colts are 6-2 in their last eight games as underdogs and 7-2 ATS in their past nine on the road. … The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS at home, and the over is 10-3 in their last 13 games.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Colts 23
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Chargers (4-8) at Jaguars (4-8)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: Chargers -3, 42½
Analysis: Jacksonville has lost four straight — by 23, 20, 22 and 17 — and coach Doug Marrone might not survive after the season. Though also 4-8, the Chargers have been close in their losses. The lesser of two evils argument suggests the Chargers, especially with Jacksonville back to rookie Gardner Minshew at quarterback, are the play.
By the numbers: The Chargers are 3-9 ATS this season, and the under is 15-7 in their games since early 2018. … The Jaguars are on an 0-4 spread run.
Pick: Chargers 24, Jaguars 16
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Chiefs (8-4) at Patriots (10-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -3, 49½
Analysis: The Patriots have relinquished pole position in the AFC. Recent improvements on defense suggest the Chiefs no longer need big games every week from Patrick Mahomes to prevail.
By the numbers: The under is 16-5 in New England’s last 21 regular-season games. … The Chiefs are 8-2 in their last 10 games as underdogs.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Patriots 24
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Steelers (7-5) at Cardinals (3-8-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -1½, 43½
Analysis: Mike Tomlin deserves Coach of the Year consideration, down to third stringers in key positions on offense, yet the Steelers are in a playoff spot. QB Devlin Hodges plays within himself, and the Steelers have the better defense.
By the numbers: The under is 14-5 in Steelers games since late 2018 (9-3 this season).
Pick: Steelers 26, Cardinals 17
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Titans (7-5) at Raiders (6-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Titans -2½, 47½
Analysis: This week has maxed out this price on the Titans, as there probably wouldn’t have been a week yet this season when Tennessee would be minus 3 at Oakland. But Tennessee is a different team with Ryan Tannehill, who has never lost to the Raiders, starting at quarterback.
By the numbers: The Titans are 5-1 straight up and ATS since Tannehill took over, and all six of those games have gone over the total.
Pick: Titans 30, Raiders 20
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Seahawks (10-2) at Rams (7-5)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: Pick, 47
Analysis: The Rams have not matched up badly with the Seahawks and could have won the first meeting. But Seattle’s road record has been pristine and don’t get carried away by the Rams’ win over Arizona. Those questions we had earlier in the season about the Rams have yet to be answered. There’s more involved than just Russell Wilson over Jared Goff at quarterback, but that is an edge for Seattle.
By the numbers: The Seahawks are 6-0 straight up on the road this season and have covered five of the last six against the Rams. … The last four meetings went over the total.
Pick: Seahawks 29, Rams 24
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Monday
Giants (2-10) at Eagles (5-7)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line: Eagles -9½, 45½
Analysis: Philadelphia is lucky to be alive in the NFC East race. The faltering Giants provide two chances for the Eagles to get well in December. But before laying points, note that the road underdog has been the one decent role lately for the Giants.
By the numbers: The Giants are 9-3 as road underdog since last season. … The Eagles are 10-20-1 ATS in regular-season games since late 2017.
Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 22
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