5 reasons the Chiefs will win Super Bowl LIV

After backing into the second seed in the AFC with the Miami Dolphins’ victory over the New England Patriots in Week 17, the Kansas City Chiefs used a pair of blistering offensive performances to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LIV.

As he has in seemingly each game since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, quarterback Patrick Mahomes made a number of dazzling plays in both the 51-31 divisional round victory over the Houston Texans and the 35-24 win over the Tennessee Titans in the AFC championship game.

His 27-yard touchdown run at the end of the second quarter against the Titans, giving the Chiefs a 21-17 lead, will likely be replayed for years as one of the signature plays of his career.

Given how good Mahomes has been, it’s tempting to frame him as the one and only reason why the Chiefs will win Sunday.

But under further scrutiny, the Chiefs have a complete team. With that in mind, here are five reasons they will win Super Bowl LIV.

1. Two weeks to prepare

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has a 18-3 regular-season record as a head coach after a bye. The sample size is smaller, but his teams have also had success coming off a postseason bye, going 5-2.

One of those losses was in Super Bowl XXXIX to the Patriots in the 2004 season. The other came in the 2016 postseason, an 18-16 loss to the Steelers with Alex Smith at quarterback.

In the last two years with Mahomes at QB, the Chiefs have won both their post-bye playoff games with a 19-point average margin of victory.

2. Hill, Kelce, Watkins and more

Mahomes may be the headliner, but the entire Chiefs offense is full of playmakers.

In the comeback to beat the Texans in the divisional round, tight end Travis Kelce was the go-to guy, making 10 receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns.

But in the AFC championship against Tennessee, Kelce had just three receptions for 30 yards. Instead, wide receiver Sammy Watkins was Mahomes’ go-to receiver, making seven catches for 114 yards and a touchdown.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught two touchdowns in the conference championship, but he hasn’t had a game with more than 100 yards from scrimmage since the Chiefs’ Week 10 loss to Tennessee. So he’s due as well.

And that’s saying nothing of running back Damien Williams, rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman and wide receiver Demarcus Robinson — each of whom accounted for at least four touchdowns during the regular season.

3. Frank Clark has been playing really well

The Chiefs traded for the defensive end during the offseason. Clark battled through a pinched nerve throughout the regular season but still recorded eight sacks and 12 tackles for loss.

Clark has been tremendous in the Chiefs’ two playoff games, with four sacks and four tackles for loss in Kansas City’s victories over the Texans and Titans.

Clark ended the last faint hopes of both Houston and Tennessee, recording a sack on the final defensive plays in consecutive weeks.

Plus, after playing the first four years of his career with the Seattle Seahawks, Clark is familiar with the 49ers. He has recorded 3½ sacks, four tackles for loss, 11 quarterback hits, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery against them.

4. An improved run defense

Back in Week 10, the Chiefs couldn’t slow down running back Derrick Henry and lost to the Titans 35-32. In that game Henry finished with 188 yards on 23 carries, including a 68-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill also had 37 yards on the ground, with a key 18-yard run coming late in the fourth quarter.

In all, the Titans had 225 yards rushing in that game.

Since then, the Chiefs have held opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing in five of their last eight games — including the postseason. In fact, the Titans managed only 85 yards rushing against the Chiefs in the AFC championship, with Henry managing a meager — for his standards — 69 yards.

The 49ers’ run game will be hard to stop, having put up 186 yards rushing against the Vikings in the divisional round, and following that with 285 yards to down the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship. But if the saying “Defense wins championships” holds true, the Chiefs could have the advantage there.

5. Patrick Mahomes

Even if nearly all other aspects of the game don’t go the Chiefs’ way, they still have a good chance to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years because their quarterback is transcendent.

After the AFC championship, ESPN commentator Bomani Jones compared Mahomes to one of the greatest basketball players of all time. “This is like watching Jordan.”

Who else could turn a 24-0 second-quarter deficit into a 28-24 lead before halftime? You just don’t see that in the NFL.

Mahomes was nothing short of electric in the Chiefs’ two January playoff games, completing 66 percent of his passes for 615 yards with eight passing touchdowns — plus another rushing — and zero interceptions for a 131.5 passer rating. Illustrating his efficiency, 11.4 percent of his passes this postseason have gone for touchdowns. Even in his 2018 MVP season during which he threw 50 TDs, only 8.6 percent of Mahomes’ passes went for scores.

Reid is a Hall of Fame-caliber head coach. The Chiefs weapons are hard to stop. Clark has been proven to be a key addition. And Kansas City’s defense has improved.

But the biggest reason the Chiefs will win Super Bowl LIV is the quarterback they refer to in Kansas City simply as “Pat.”