How the COVID pandemic could affect MLB betting

Under bettors might have a bit of an edge on baseball’s season win totals because of the coronavirus pandemic.

That’s because baseball’s 162-game schedule is back — opening day is Thursday — but sportsbooks require a minimum of 150 games at William Hill and 155 at the Westgate for win total wagers to be action.

“Because of COVID, they made the number a little lower. I played only unders because COVID can only hurt you, it can’t help you,” professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said. “It wouldn’t be far-fetched for some teams to play 158 or 159 games. If they’re not in contention, they’re probably not going to make those games up.”

Whitelaw wagered on five teams to go under their win total, and pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris) bet on three.

Here are their 10 best bets, including Zeniuk’s top two over plays. The numbers are from the Westgate, but Zeniuk noted that “if betting these, it is well worth the extra effort to check every possible sportsbook operator for line differences.”

Unders

■ Tampa Bay Rays, 86½

The Rays traded former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the San Diego Padres, and their number has dropped from an opener of 88½.

“Toronto has improved a lot and, of course, the Yankees are very tough (in the American League East),” Whitelaw said. “Losing their Cy Young pitcher is just too much to overcome.”

■ Washington Nationals, 84

“It’s just speculation,” Whitelaw said. “But (Stephen) Strasburg’s always injured, and (Max) Scherzer is in the last year of his contract and, unless they’re in contention, I see them getting rid of Scherzer.

“Atlanta and the Mets are strong (in the National League East). The Nationals don’t figure to be in contention.”

■ Cleveland Indians, 81½

Zeniuk said the losses of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Brad Hand, Carlos Santana and Delino DeShields Jr. will be too much for the Indians to overcome.

“This isn’t the first season, and it won’t be the last moving forward, where hitting trumps pitching,” he said. “The Tribe pitching can only take them so far, and that measure is short of the win total.”

■ Cincinnati Reds, 80

“It’s been an offseason to forget for Cincinnati,” said Zeniuk (wt.buzz/LVC). “They lost their best pitcher in Trevor Bauer, and Anthony DeSclafani’s, Freddy Galvis’ and Brian Goodwin’s exits make the Reds less than they were a year ago.”

■ Boston Red Sox, 79½

Whitelaw played under 81½, but said he would play the projected fourth-worst team in the AL East at 79½.

“They’re not at all even remotely close to what they were,” he said. “I don’t see them playing .500 ball.”

■ Chicago Cubs, 77

“They’ve got a bunch of free agents, and if the Cubs aren’t in it, they’ll be looking to dump those guys,” Whitelaw said. “The Cubs don’t figure to be in it.”

■ Texas Rangers, 67½

Zeniuk said the offseason departures of Edinson Volquez, Derek Dietrich, Shin-Soo Choo, Corey Kluber and Elvis Andrus will be too much to overcome.

“This Rangers group won’t be anything other than the bottom dweller in the AL West,” he said.

■ Pittsburgh Pirates, 58

Whitelaw thinks the lowest win total on the board isn’t low enough.

“They’re just horrible,” he said.

Overs

■ Minnesota Twins, 89

The Twins have claimed back-to-back AL Central crowns, and Zeniuk expects them to contend for another title this season.

“The divisional competition has gotten stronger,” he said. “But the additions of Hansel Robles, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome and Matt Shoemaker make over the total a value-based investment.”

■ Toronto Blue Jays, 87

This number is up from its opener of 86, and Zeniuk agrees with the move.

“Toronto is a franchise with young talent and enough starting pitching to challenge the oddsmaker’s total,” he said. “It would not surprise me if the Blue Jays’ additions of Marcus Semien and George Springer greatly assisted in a 90-win campaign.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.