Best actress category ripe for upset at Academy Awards

The nominees for best bets on the 93rd Academy Awards are Viola Davis and Andra Day.

Davis is the 2-1 second choice at DraftKings sportsbook to win the Oscar for best actress for her performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Day is a 6-1 shot for best actress for her role in “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.”

Best actress is the only major category — along with best actor, best picture, best director, best supporting actor and best supporting actress — without a prohibitive favorite.

“I think there could be an upset in the making there where it’s Viola Davis or Andra Day,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “I think Viola Davis is going to win it. She’s fabulous, and she’s absolutely great in it.”

DraftKings offers wagering on all 24 Oscars categories in New Jersey, Indiana and Michigan. Betting on the Academy Awards hasn’t been approved in Nevada.

Carey Mulligan is the +125 favorite for best actress for her performance in “Promising Young Woman.”

Professional sports bettor Cris Zeniuk, who has successfully wagered on the Oscars the last 10 years, backed Day, who portrayed jazz singer Billie “Lady Day” Holiday.

“The only category I see a potential upset in is the best actress category, which would be Andra Day,” said Zeniuk (@Lasvegascris). “It was a multitalented role where she did Billie Holiday music and went through the transition of aging. The only bet I placed was on Andra Day.”

“Nomadland” is a -670 favorite to win the Oscar for best picture. “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is the 6-1 second choice. The odds on every other film are in double digits.

Late actor Chadwick Boseman is a -1,667 favorite to win the best actor Oscar for his performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”

Betting favorites are expressed with a minus sign. In this case, a bettor must wager $1,667 to win $100 on Boseman.

“I don’t see ‘Nomadland’ losing and there’s probably no way Chadwick Boseman loses,” Zeniuk said.

“Nomadland” director Chloe Zhao is a -3,335 favorite to win best director and Daniel Kaluuya is a -2,500 favorite to win best supporting actor for his role in “Judas and the Black Messiah.” The odds on the other nominees in each category are in double digits.

Youn Yuh-jung is a -500 favorite for best supporting actress for her role in “Minari.” Maria Bakalova is the +375 second choice for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.”

Betting on the Academy Awards — scheduled for 5 p.m. Sunday (KTNV-13) — was available only in New Jersey the last two years.

“The action was good in just one place. With three places, I’m thinking it’s going to be really good,” Avello said. “Of course, we’ve got some really chalky categories. If the Oscars were even-money and 9-5, 3-1 and 6-1, we’d get a lot more action.

“But we’ve got such prohibitive favorites, it almost forces people to bet on a huge underdog.”

Avello made Academy Awards odds for entertainment purposes only in Nevada for 25 years before leaving Wynn Las Vegas for DraftKings.

A Nevada book hasn’t made a request to take bets on the Oscars since 2012, according to Gaming Control Board senior research analyst Michael Lawton.

“At that time, it was denied because the board had not yet approved any nonsporting event,” Lawton said in an email.

The board has since approved several vote-based wagers, such as the Super Bowl MVP and NBA MVP.

“Bookmakers don’t like to book this stuff because they only get one-way action,” Zeniuk said. “It takes very little money to move the line significantly. It’s really more for amusement than anything else.”

There has been an upset winner for best picture the past two years. “Parasite” was a surprise 2-1 winner over “1917” last year, and “Green Book” was a 2-1 winner over “Roma” in 2019.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.