Sportsbooks adjust as NFL home-field advantage declines

Home-field advantage in the NFL has all but disappeared.

Last season, home teams finished with a losing record (127-128-1) for the first time in NFL history.

Most games were played in empty stadiums in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But home-field advantage already had been on a steady decline.

In 2019, home teams went 132-123-1, which was the worst record since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.

The fans are back this season. But the home-field advantage is not. Home teams are 92-98 straight up and 81-109 ATS (42.6 percent).

Only 12 teams have winning home records, and six have winning home records ATS in the Packers (5-0), Buccaneers (4-1), Cowboys (4-2), Lions (4-2), Patriots (4-3) and Dolphins (4-3).

Home favorites — of which there are 10 on the Week 14 card — have especially struggled, going 44-67-1 ATS (39.6 percent).

Home worth less to line

For years, the standard home-field advantage in the NFL was worth three points to the line. But those days are long gone.

“We’ve long thought that that was kind of a lazy approach to it. It’s acting as if all home-field advantages are created equal and, of course, they’re not,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “On average, if we felt two teams were pretty much dead even, we’d probably give the home team a bump of 2 to 2½ points. But, again, that’s kind of a lazy approach. It’s really a case by case basis.

“There’s no way you can think the Chargers have the same home-field advantage as the Packers and Chiefs do. It seems like the Chargers don’t really have a home-field advantage. The stadium is mostly filled with fans from the other team.”

Since the Chargers left San Diego in 2017, they have the league’s second-worst home record ATS at 13-22-1. The New York Giants have the worst at 12-25-1.

Circa Sports oddsmaker Chris Bennett also estimated that the average home-field advantage now is -2½.

“It’s definitely worth less than it used to be,” he said. “For example, the Browns are -2½ over the Ravens. To me, that’s saying these teams are equal and the Browns are giving 2½ points because they’re at home.”

Green Bay has been the best home team ATS since 2010, going 62-37-2 and 17-7 since 2019.

“Do I still think there’s a home-field advantage for Green Bay at Lambeau Field in late December or January? Absolutely,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It just might not be quite as big as it was in the past.”

Road warriors

Bookmakers pointed to several reasons why home-field advantage has declined, including more opposing fans traveling to games, easier team travel and more unbiased calls by officials.

“Things have changed so dramatically as far as who attends the game,” Esposito said. “Growing up in Chicago, there were just die-hard Bears fans going to the game. You didn’t have the huge influx of the opposition crowd there.

“Teams that aren’t good, there’s a larger contingent of opposing fans there. That definitely has to affect home field.”

There are also several popular destination stadiums for visiting fans, including the ones in Los Angeles, Dallas and Las Vegas.

“Another aspect is the travel. It’s not that bad when you’re going on the road on a private plane and you stay at a five-star hotel,” Murray said. “It just doesn’t seem to impact guys as much as it used to for a variety of reasons.”

Bennett thinks there is less of a home-team bias by the NFL officials.

”I feel like it’s very balanced in terms of how they call the game. It’s not tilted to the home team,” he said. “As far as the game being called fairly, I think the sport has evolved over the years. It’s more of an even playing field.”

SuperBook Arizona

The SuperBook plans to launch its mobile app in Arizona in the next week. The SuperBook also operates in New Jersey and Colorado.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.