Gonzaga favored, but oddsmakers say NCAA Tournament is wide open

With Selection Sunday three weeks away, Gonzaga is the clear favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.

But up to 20 teams are capable of cutting down the nets April 4 in the national championship game in New Orleans, Las Vegas oddsmakers and handicappers say.

“This is the most wide-open tournament in years,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “There are just so many good teams. Gonzaga’s definitely the top dog, but I can see 15 teams that have a shot of winning the title.”

The Bulldogs, +450 at BetMGM, lost to Baylor in the 2021 NCAA title game. Guard Julian Strawther, who starred at Liberty High School, starts for Gonzaga and averages 12.6 points and 5.8 rebounds.

“Gonzaga plays to the highest power rating. But I don’t think this year’s team is as good as last year’s team,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “But that doesn’t mean this year’s team can’t win. I feel like there’s 20 teams that can win this year if things go their way.”

There are 26 teams with odds of less than 100-1 at the SuperBook and 11 with odds of less than 20-1.

Kentucky, Arizona and Auburn are tied for the 8-1 second pick. Auburn (18-7-1 ATS) was 100-1 earlier this season, and Arizona was 60-1.

“Of the top contenders, Auburn is definitely our biggest liability,” Pullen said. “When you have a team that starts out with high odds and starts playing well, people are going to back them early and take the shot that they’ll continue that progression.”

Gonzaga is the ticket and money leader at Caesars, which took a $30,000 wager to win $150,000 on the Zags.

Kentucky is second in tickets and money at Caesars and is a six-figure liability at BetMGM, where it opened 25-1.

“Several times this season I’ve watched Kentucky and thought this is the best team in the country,” Goldsheet.com handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “Oscar Tshiebwe is one of the best rebounding forces I’ve ever seen in college basketball. I’ll take Kentucky as long as they’re healthy.”

UCLA, which lost to Gonzaga in last season’s Final Four, is the ticket leader at the SuperBook and second in money.

Handicapper Brian Edwards (@vegasbedwards) said the Bruins are worth a shot at 27-1 at Circa Sports.

“Mick Cronin’s team at 27-1 is extremely attractive to me,” he said. “The Bruins have a tournament-tested roster that’s added a quality rim protector in Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson. They have a veteran point guard in Tyger Campbell. Johnny Juzang is an elite scorer who can carry a team to victories in tight games.

“The Bruins will probably be a No. 3 seed if they can finish strong.”

For a longer shot, Edwards likes Alabama, 64-1 at Circa.

“Alabama has been the nation’s biggest Jekyll-and-Hyde squad this season. But a 64-1 price makes Nate Oats’ bunch worth a small play,” he said. “The Crimson Tide have wins over Baylor, Houston, Gonzaga (in Seattle) and Tennessee.”

Marshall said Arkansas (100-1 at Caesars) and Miami (150-1 at Circa) are worth a shot at long odds.

The Razorbacks haven’t shot well from 3-point range. But Stanley Umude made six 3s in Tuesday’s win over Missouri, making Marshall high on the Hogs.

“If Umude gets hot, and one of the other guys starts to connect, that changes everything, and this team becomes a threat to go to the Final Four,” he said.

Like Arkansas, Miami is an older team with a lot of experience.

“I like Miami a lot,” Marshall said. “They’ve been winning on the road. This is (coach Jim) Larranaga’s last great shot this year.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.