Bookmakers agree Raiders have virtually no home-field advantage

Home-field advantage in the NFL used to be worth a standard three points to the spread across the board.

But that number has dwindled over the years, and several oddsmakers agree that the Raiders have virtually no home-field advantage at Allegiant Stadium.

“In terms of points, the (NFL) average is probably around 1½ points,” Circa Sports NFL oddsmaker Dylan Sullivan said. “The Raiders’ is probably closer to zero when they are hosting a real fan base. I would rank them close to the bottom.

“They do get to experience the reverse of that when they go back to (Los Angeles), though. It seemed like 80 percent of the fans at the Raiders-Chargers game were for the Raiders.”

Visiting fans regularly rival Raiders fans at Allegiant, where Vivid Seats is projecting a 54-46 split in favor of Packers fans on “Monday Night Football.”

“I know the game is being played right down the road at Allegiant Stadium, but it’s going to be a Packers crowd,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “We saw it happen with the Steelers, when the crowd was predominantly Steelers fans. The Raiders will be at home in name only.

“Las Vegas is a destination. You’re going to have fans from all over who want to see their team on the road. What better place to do it than Las Vegas? You see if with the Knights, and the Raiders are no different.”

Pullen estimates the average home-field advantage in the NFL is worth about 2 points, with road teams negating their disadvantage partly through first-class travel and accommodations.

“I don’t put a lot of stock into travel,” he said. “It’s also relative to how well the (home) team is doing.”

As for the Raiders (1-3, 1-3 ATS), Pullen said they certainly have one of the league’s lowest-rated home-field edges.

“You could say there is none or it’s minimal,” he said. “They’re a team that’s going to bring down the average rather than make it higher.”

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said he’d still give the Raiders at least a point for being at home.

“Any time you play at home, you have somewhat of an advantage. But it’s not anywhere close to what you see in Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Francisco and Buffalo,” he said. “I still think those teams are all worth three points when they’re at home.

“Even though the Cowboys are ‘America’s Team,’ that stadium usually has a large contingent of visiting fans there, and we see the same thing with Allegiant. In some cases, it’s almost a 50-50 split.”

Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons estimates the NFL average home-field edge ranges from 2 to 2.6 points, and he gives the Raiders 2.5 points.

“The better the away team, the less the home-field advantage for any team,” he said.

Favorite flips

The favorite has flipped in Monday’s game. Green Bay opened as a 1½-point favorite, but the Raiders became 1½-point favorites Friday.

The Raiders announced Friday that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has cleared concussion protocol, and Esposito said the line move was based on the expectation that he’ll play against the Packers.

Green Bay (2-2, 3-1 ATS) has a slight edge in ticket count at Station.

“But I expect that to flip and the ticket count, money and liability will all favor the Raiders and we will be Packers fans when the game kicks off Monday night,” Esposito said.

The total is 44½. The Packers have gone over in three of their four games, while the Raiders have gone under in three of four.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.