NFL Week 16 betting breakdown: Predictions for Sunday, Monday games

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Lou Finocchiaro, @GambLou, GambLou.com

Raiders (6-8) at Chiefs (9-5)

Time: 10 a.m. Monday, KLAS-8

Line/total: Chiefs -10, 40½

Analysis: The Chiefs have struggled to find continuity all year long. Grit, a stalwart quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and team pride have earned them their 9-5 record. They face a Raiders bunch that comes to town with 11 days of rest. A team’s record does not always tell the whole story in a divisional rivalry. Hometown Raiders in the upset.

Pick: Raiders 18, Chiefs 17

Colts (8-6) at Falcons (6-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -2½, 40½

Analysis: The Colts and second-string QB Gardner Minshew have positioned themselves for a playoff run. They travel to Atlanta, which is coming off a terrible loss to the rival Panthers last week. Indianapolis, despite injuries to running back Zack Moss and wide receiver Michael Pittman, is the more balanced team on both sides of the football. The Falcons continue to play musical QBs behind the questionable leadership of coach Arthur Smith.

Pick: Colts 21, Falcons 16

Packers (6-8) at Panthers (2-12)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -5, 37½

Analysis: The Packers look to keep their faint playoff hopes alive when they travel to Carolina. The Panthers are coming off of just their second win of the season. The Packers’ improving offense should control this game. Carolina ranks 30th in offensive yards per game and allows the fourth-most points per game on defense.

Pick: Packers 20, Panthers 16

Browns (9-5) at Texans (8-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Browns -2½, 42

Analysis: The Texans upset the Titans last week behind backup QB Case Keenum, who played for the Browns in 2020 and 2021. Houston, with Keenum likely to start again, needs to win this home game to keep its hopes of winning the AFC South alive. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski has done a masterful job folding former Super Bowl champion QB Joe Flacco into the offense. Flacco makes the difference here in a game where points will be at a premium.

Pick: Browns 19, Texans 16

Seahawks (7-7) at Titans (5-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -2½, 41½

Analysis: Titans starting QB Will Levis is trying to return from an ankle sprain to play in this game. Tennessee is looking to bounce back after losing to the Texans in a game where running back Derrick Henry was bottled up. The Seahawks are facing a difficult week. They’ll be traveling across the country on short rest after an emotional win against Philadelphia on Monday. The Titans will play spoiler against a Seattle team with everything to play for.

Pick: Titans 19, Seahawks 17

Commanders (4-10) at Jets (5-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jets -3, 47½

Analysis: Two teams that had promising starts to the season are now just fighting for draft position. Both the Commanders and Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention. The mismatch here lies in Washington’s mediocre, turnover-prone offense facing what’s still an impressive New York defense.

Pick: Jets 16, Commanders 11

Lions (10-4) at Vikings (7-7)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Lions -3, 47

Analysis: The Lions enter this NFC North contest with a 2-2 record (straight up and against the spread) over their last four games. Detroit’s strength is its balanced offense, especially indoors and on turf. The Vikings have fashioned a formidable defense that allows the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL. This has upset potential.

Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 21

Jaguars (8-6) at Buccaneers (7-7)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -3, 41½

Analysis: The Jaguars, losers of three straight, face a Buccaneers team that is gunning for a division title. This battle of Florida appears to be a defensive slog. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol and backup C.J. Beathard could start. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars’ defense has been able to slow opponents down. The wind in Florida will be blowing heavily for this one.

Pick: Buccaneers 17, Jaguars 14 (OT)

Cowboys (10-4) at Dolphins (10-4)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Dolphins -1, 50½

Analysis: This game will be windy. The Cowboys, in their second straight trip out east, will look to bounce back after being battered in Buffalo in last week’s 31-10 loss. These two teams have bullied mediocre squads while struggling against the NFL’s elite. The Dolphins’ rushing attack seems to be the foundation for their success here. The Cowboys will try to control Miami’s offense and play with the lead. That’s easier said than done.

Pick: Cowboys 26, Dolphins 24

Cardinals (3-11) at Bears (5-9)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Bears -4, 43½

Analysis: The Bears organization is in tatters. It’s Week 16 and they’re still attempting to determine if coach Matt Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields are the right men for their jobs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing focused, high-effort football for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon.

Pick: Bears 19, Cardinals 16

Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NFL Network

Line/total: Broncos -7, 34½

Analysis: Weather could be a factor in this contest. The Broncos, who are playing for a playoff spot, are fueled by their offense and third-ranked special teams unit. The issue is Denver’s defense allows the third-most points in the NFL. The Patriots can’t run, can’t pass and their special teams are the worst in the league.

Pick: Broncos 15, Patriots 13

Giants (5-9) at Eagles (10-4)

Time: 1:30 p.m. Monday, KVVU-5

Line/total: Eagles -13, 42½

Analysis: Competent offensive football under QB Tommy DeVito is driving a Giants team that is short on talent but long on effort. The Eagles are likely to get little love at home based on their play these last three weeks. A closer look, however, shows that wins over the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills preceded their recent losses to the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That’s a brutal stretch. The sky is not falling in Philadelphia, despite what most fans believe.

Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 17

Ravens (11-3) at 49ers (11-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, KTNV-13

Line/total: 49ers -5½, 47

Analysis: The Ravens have won four straight and arrive in San Francisco after winning at Jacksonville last week. The 49ers have won six straight and been flawless in all three facets of football. This potential Super Bowl preview could look more like a tennis match.

Pick: 49ers 33, Ravens 31