NFL Week 17 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Dana Lane, @DanaLaneSports, PickDawgz.com
Raiders (7-8) at Colts (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Colts -3½, 42½
Analysis: I had a friend point out he is going against the Raiders because he doesn’t know how a team can win against its biggest rival, fly home and then head to Indianapolis to take on a Colts team that was embarrassed by the Atlanta Falcons. All great points. But when a culture is changing before our eyes, it infuses the kind of confidence that eluded Indianapolis last week. The Colts are too undisciplined on defense for my liking. Fire up the cigars again.
Pick: Raiders 26, Colts 23
Dolphins (11-4) at Ravens (12-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -3, 47
Analysis: The Ravens have won five straight games, including that impressive Week 16 win over the 49ers as 6½-point underdogs. Baltimore and Miami have each covered four of their past five games. But the Ravens’ covers have been far more impressive, with three coming on the road against better opponents. Much has been made of how well Vic Fangio’s defense has performed for the Dolphins (third in total defense). That should provide an extra level of motivation for Mike MacDonald’s Ravens defense (first in scoring defense).
Pick: Ravens 26, Dolphins 17
Patriots (4-11) at Bills (9-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -14, 40
Analysis: To say this is a revenge spot for the Bills is a massive understatement. In Week 7, the Patriots stole a straight-up 29-25 win over Buffalo as 8½-point underdogs. Instead of resurrecting New England’s playoff hopes, it served as the beginning of the end. The Patriots went on to lose five straight and six of eight. A Bills defense that’s ranked fifth in yards allowed per completion should have little problem containing New England quarterback Bailey Zappe.
Pick: Bills 37, Patriots 20
Falcons (7-8) at Bears (6-9)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bears -2½, 38
Analysis: Despite the Bears winning four straight home games, the overwhelming amount of money (67 percent) has come in on the Falcons. Teams receiving more than 50 percent of the money wagered are 118-103. Atlanta is coming off a 29-10 win over Indianapolis in which it suffocated the Colts in the second half. The Falcons will continue that momentum against Chicago, which can’t be trusted to close games out. The Bears will lead at halftime and blow the game late.
Pick: Falcons 24, Bears 20
Titans (5-10) at Texans (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -4, 44
Analysis: It’s always great to look at my line service and see that both teams have “TBD” next to the starting quarterback cell. Now, we know that C.J. Stroud will return behind center for the Texans. But when returning from a concussion, there is always pause from a betting perspective. Will Levis is expected to start for the Titans after recovering from an ankle injury. With both quarterbacks back from injury, I’m going to lean on Derrick Henry, who will play with a chip on his shoulder (9 yards, 16 carries last meeting) to cash my ticket. But it’s not my strongest stance of the day.
Pick: Titans 30, Texans 23
Panthers (2-13) at Jaguars (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -4½, 36½
Analysis: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will not play, the Jaguars announced Friday. The news caused the number to deflate from -9 to -4. Normally, I would look for a reason to go with the team that lost its starter. But I can’t put my money behind C.J. Beathard, who is 2-10 as a starter, and a team that always falls flat against nonconference foes at home. The Panthers’ fourth-ranked defense mauls the Jaguars.
Pick: Panthers 20, Jaguars 14
Rams (8-7) at Giants (5-10)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -5½, 43½
Analysis: Finally, the Giants will turn to Tyrod Taylor after the Tommy DeVito experiment. The 34-year-old Taylor has made just 10 starts since 2019 with three teams. With the 49ers on deck, some will say this is a trap game for Los Angeles. But that only holds against an opponent that possesses the weapons to take advantage of a few disinterested drives. I don’t subscribe to the theory that an 8-7 team could be in a look-ahead spot.
Pick: Rams 30, Giants 23
Cardinals (3-12) at Eagles (11-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -11½, 48
Analysis: Make no mistake, the Eagles are the better team. But they have looked sluggish since a road win over the Chiefs. Philadelphia is 2-3 since that signature win. But even in a victory over the Bills, the Eagles trailed until the 11:07 mark of the fourth quarter. They also were outscored 22-13 in the second half of last week’s win over the Giants, a game they failed to cover. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their past nine games against the Eagles and 10-0 ATS against the NFC East, including 3-0 this season.
Pick: Eagles 28, Cardinals 24
Saints (7-8) at Buccaneers (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -2½, 42½
Analysis: The Buccaneers handled the Saints in their first meeting 26-9, holding Derek Carr to 127 yards passing. The majority of money and tickets wagered are on the Saints. But the line has moved in Tampa Bay’s direction, signaling that books are willing to take on Saints money.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 23
49ers (11-4) at Commanders (4-11)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: 49ers -13½, 49½
Analysis: Washington quarterback Jacoby Brissett is listed as questionable after a hamstring injury landed him on the injury report. If Brissett can’t play, we’ll get Sam Howell, who was benched after he completed 6 of 22 passes for 56 yards in a Week 16 loss to the Jets. The 49ers will win, but their focus will be on not putting anything on film for the Rams, their Week 18 opponent.
Pick: 49ers 34, Commanders 26
Steelers (8-7) at Seahawks (8-7)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Seahawks -3½, 41
Analysis: Mason Rudolph gets his second start for the Steelers after completing 17 of 27 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 34-11 win over the Bengals. The public took that as a sign to bet on the Steelers, with 70 percent of the consensus money on Pittsburgh. Rule No. 1 of betting football: Forget what you just saw. This is still the Steelers team that has failed to cover four of its past six games and is 30th in completions (19.1) per game. It’s worth noting that Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is healthy enough to play after ankle surgery.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Steelers 21
Bengals (8-7) at Chiefs (9-6)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 44
Analysis: After Kansas City was embarrassed at home Monday by the Raiders, I anticipated there would be a massive amount of Chiefs money pouring in. But betting patterns have not played out that way, with 57 percent of the consensus money on the Bengals. The reason is simple. The public is tired of being burned by a team that has lost five of its past eight games while going 2-5-1 ATS. We often talk about a letdown spot, but that discussion is usually reserved for the winning team, while the losing team can also experience a lethargic follow-up after a high-intensity game. Kansas City sleepwalks throughout but eventually wins another division title.
Pick: Chiefs 21, Bengals 17
Chargers (5-10) at Broncos (7-8)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Broncos -3½, 36½
Analysis: Let’s talk about the benching of Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham for the Broncos before their most important game of the season. To give Stidham his third career start and first in Denver says a lot about the relationship between Wilson and the organization, which would be on the hook for a $37 million injury guarantee if Wilson got hurt. It also says that Denver knows its playoff chances are over.
Pick: Chargers 20, Broncos 14
Packers (7-8) at Vikings (7-8)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Pick, 44
Analysis: I’ve been burned by the Packers against less-than-stellar quarterbacks, but this one feels different. Former Brigham Young quarterback Jaren Hall gets the ball for the Vikings, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. But this is just Hall’s third career start. This is a revenge spot for Green Bay after the Vikings handed the Packers a 24-10 home loss in late October.
Pick: Packers 26, Vikings 23
