What are realistic expectations for Raiders’ new starting QB?
It might be wise to turn the calendar back to 2017 if one is looking for a fair example of what Gardner Minshew could do as the Raiders’ starting quarterback this season.
That year a talented Vikings team lost veteran Sam Bradford to injury early on and was forced to turn to journeyman Case Keenum.
Keenum’s 9-15 record as a starter entering that season didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Neither did his 60.9 career completion percentage.
But something magical happened that year in Minnesota. Keenum played complementary football, spread the ball around to his playmakers and leaned on a solid running game and defense. He posted an 11-3 record as a starter that season as a result, as well as a career-best 67.6 completion percentage and 98.3 passer rating.
It’s a performance that’s at least in the realm of possibility for Minshew this year.
His 15-22 record as a starter and 62.6 career completion percentage, like Keenum’s before 2017, doesn’t jump off the page. But the supporting cast around him with the Raiders at least gives him the chance to pull off a similar kind of surprise.
No guarantees
It’s worth noting that Keenum hasn’t replicated his 2017 form before or since.
The Vikings, despite reaching the NFC title game that season, were even so skeptical he could repeat it that they let him walk as a free agent and signed veteran Kirk Cousins instead.
That doesn’t mean Minshew couldn’t do something similar. Or even do enough to convince the Raiders to keep him around. It’s just a reminder that the stars aligned perfectly for Keenum.
Still, the circumstances surrounding Keenum with the 2017 Vikings are comparable to the ones Minshew has surrounding him with the 2024 Raiders. And the two quarterbacks are similar in terms of talent, stature and guile.
It’s just up to Minshew to take advantage of his situation the way Keenum did.
Minnesota’s team that year featured star wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Minshew has wideouts Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers at his disposal as well as tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.
The Vikings boasted the best scoring defense in the NFL that season, while the Raiders bring back almost every starter from a unit that allowed ninth-fewest points in the league in 2023.
Minnesota, thanks to its weapons on offense and strong personnel on defense, didn’t ask Keenum to be a hero. He just had to go out and execute the game plan.
The Raiders, likewise, don’t need Minshew to carry the offense on his shoulders. He just has to be efficient.
Avoiding the lulls
Minshew almost pulled off a Keenum-like run last year.
He started the Colts’ final 13 games after rookie Anthony Richardson got hurt and put Indianapolis within one win of a playoff berth. But Minshew’s own performances were one reason the team came up short.
He delivered four clunkers that ultimately held the Colts back. In losses to the Jaguars, Saints, Falcons and Texans, Minshew completed 57 percent of his passes while throwing three touchdowns and five interceptions.
It’s unrealistic to ask him to be excellent in every game, especially if he makes all 17 starts. But he needs to keep the rough days to a minimum.
The Raiders don’t need Minshew to be a driving force. He also can’t be a detriment.
What is possible?
If Minshew plays within himself and avoids unforced errors, it’s realistic to expect him to complete 64 percent of his passes and come close to 4,000 yards if he plays all 17 games.
The Raiders would gladly take that outcome. It would give them a real opportunity to win nine or 10 games and make a playoff push.
Contact Vincent Bonsignore at vbonsignore@reviewjournal.com. Follow @VinnyBonsignore on X.
