NFL Week 1 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Pritchard, Pritchardspicks.com
Raiders at Chargers
Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Chargers -3, 40
Analysis: The Chargers brought in shiny new pieces on offense and defense, but will they jell out of the gate in coach Jim Harbaugh’s new schemes? The Raiders welcome Gardner Minshew as their new quarterback, and Antonio Pierce earned the coaching job full-time after orchestrating a 5-4 turnaround last season as interim coach following a 3-5 start. Both teams rank highly in roster improvement, but the team that ran roughshod over the other last season — the Raiders in a 63-21 decimation — has the upper hand in swagger. But will it be enough?
Pick: Chargers 27, Raiders 20
Jaguars at Dolphins
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 49
Analysis: In this quarterback rematch of the 2019 College Football Playoff championship game, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa square off with solid but largely unimproved squads from last season. The lavishly locked Lawrence easily prevailed in that national title matchup, but now that they’re both a couple hundred million dollars richer, who has the edge?
Pick: Dolphins 24, Jaguars 21
Steelers at Falcons
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Falcons -3½, 41
Analysis: Last season’s Falcons coach, Arthur Smith, is this season’s Steelers offensive coordinator. This game should provide clues as to who was responsible for Atlanta’s putrid 7-10 record each of the last three seasons. Also, were quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson smart acquisitions by these teams? Cousins is slated to start for the Falcons, while Wilson is questionable for Pittsburgh with a calf injury. Former Bears quarterback Justin Fields will start for the Steelers if Wilson sits.
Pick: Falcons 24, Steelers 17
Vikings at Giants
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -1, 41½
Analysis: A matchup of teams who bitterly disappointed last season. In the offseason, the Giants got better, the Vikings not so much. New York quarterback Daniel Jones appears ready to bounce back from a torn ACL that ended his season last year after only six games. The Vikings will be putting the ball in the hands of Sam Darnold. Wait. Sam Darnold? Are you kidding me?
Pick: Vikings 21, Giants 17
Panthers at Saints
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -4, 41½
Analysis: The Saints filled key holes on defense and have plenty of weaponry on last season’s ninth-ranked scoring offense to do damage on the ground and in the air. They will be tested by the Panthers’ No. 2-rated pass defense from last season. Carolina second-year quarterback Bryce Young will be hungry to help improve last season’s league-worst scoring offense (13.9 points per game).
Pick: Saints 24, Panthers 17
Patriots at Bengals
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -8, 40½
Analysis: Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is back from a torn ligament in his throwing hand, and coach Bill Belichick is gone from the Patriots after 24 years and six Super Bowl titles. New England begins the post-Belichick era with the NFL’s lowest season win total (4½ or 5, depending on the sportsbook) and the franchise’s lowest in 31 years. It won’t get a win or cover here.
Pick: Bengals 27, Patriots 13
Titans at Bears
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bears -4, 44½
Analysis: Did the Bears finally draft a quarterback who will live up to great expectations? Caleb Williams is being viewed as a potential savior. But, according to NFLDraftBuzz.com, his overall rating as an NFL quarterback prospect is 93.5, which is lower than previous busts Marcus Mariota (94.8), Jameis Winston (95.3) and Carson Wentz (94.3). The only emotion in Nashville may be dread, as their roster saw no improvement, and their hopes are pinned on an uninspiring second-year quarterback in Will Levis and a rookie coach in Brian Callahan whose biggest responsibility since 2010 has been offensive line coach. May the worst team not win.
Pick: Bears 24, Titans 17
Cardinals at Bills
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -6½, 47½
Analysis: Four years removed from the Hail Murray, few players remain on the Bills team that lost 32-30 when Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray threw a 43-yard Hail Mary pass that wideout DeAndre Hopkins caught over three Buffalo defenders for the winning touchdown. After Buffalo parted ways with six of eight team captains in the offseason to remain under the salary cap, have the Bills lost too much talent to meet expectations? The Cardinals got better, but will it be enough to recover quickly from a 4-13 season?
Pick: Bills 27, Cardinals 20
Texans at Colts
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -3, 49
Analysis: The strong get stronger, as Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud welcomes the talents of running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a lineup that showed signs of greatness last season. The Colts were not able to make meaningful improvements to their roster, but they do have second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson healthy again after a promising start to his rookie year ended in Week 5 with an injury to his throwing shoulder. His return should help Indianapolis stay competitive in games against tougher opponents and even pull off a few upsets. Just not on Sunday.
Pick: Texans 27, Colts 24
Commanders at Buccaneers
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -3½, 42½
Analysis: Washington is starting from scratch this season, with a new general manager in Adam Peters and every single coach replaced, starting with Dan Quinn taking over as head coach for Ron Rivera. Just to make sure no prior programming exists, the Commanders also are starting rookie Jayden Daniels, their No. 2 overall draft pick, at quarterback. What on earth could go wrong? The Bucs aren’t changing much, but added key pieces on the lines and in their secondary that should bolster their quest for a fourth consecutive NFC South division title.
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Commanders 20
Broncos at Seahawks
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Seahawks -6, 41½
Analysis: Preseason is usually pointless, but what rookie quarterback Bo Nix did with the Broncos in August, directing Denver to scores on six of his first seven drives, won him the starting position over veterans Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. Broncos coach Sean Payton will put his offensive expertise on the line against new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, a defensive mastermind. Macdonald replaces coach Pete Carroll, who guided the Seahawks to 10 playoff appearances and the franchise’s lone Super Bowl title in 14 seasons at the helm.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Broncos 13
Cowboys at Browns
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Browns -2½, 41
Analysis: The competitive spirit will thrive in this game, as Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott duels with Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson, and Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons attempts to outshine Cleveland defensive end Myles Garrett, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Fireworks and big plays should abound in this matchup, and it may come down to coaching in the end. Regarding Dallas coach Mike McCarthy, my mama always said, if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all.
Pick: Browns 27, Cowboys 17
Rams at Lions
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Lions -4, 52
Analysis: In a rematch of last year’s playoff game in Detroit won by the Lions 24-23, both teams are riding a wave of confidence after key roster spots were filled with A-grade talent. Detroit finished last season with slightly higher rankings on offense and defense, but I give the coaching edge to Sean McVay and the Rams. In a game with such a thin line separating talent on the field, that edge could be the difference. Until Lions coach Dan Campbell understands basic third-grade math — and that he does not need to go for it on every single fourth down — I like the Rams plus the points.
Pick: Rams 28, Lions 24
Jets at 49ers
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: 49ers -4, 43½
Analysis: The Jets improved their offensive line to provide more protection for 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who returns after tearing his Achilles tendon four snaps into last season. The Niners lost key talent on defense, but their edge in all aspects, including coaching, may be too much to overcome for a New York squad that lost seven of its final 10 games last season. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy led the league in QBR last season, and there are no clouds on the horizon in his quest to repeat. The Jets have been lost in the clouds for most of their prior 56 seasons, and their pilots are still not instrument-rated. But I love their defense, which will keep this one close.
Pick: 49ers 23, Jets 21
