Breeders’ Cup analysis, picks for Friday’s 5 races

DEL MAR, Calif. — The sumptuous buffet known as the Breeders’ Cup returns to Del Mar racetrack for the third time Friday, with five races featuring 2-year-old horses serving as an appetizer before Saturday’s nine-race main course, topped by the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The two-day event continues to grow into the ambitious “World Championships” moniker bestowed before the first Breeders’ Cup in 1984, with a record-breaking 80 international horses pre-entered for the races, including runners from Europe, Japan, South America and Africa. They will compete against top runners from the U.S. and Canada for more than $34 million in purses.

The top attraction Friday is the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the winner of which will become the early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. But all five Day One races feature wide-open fields capable of producing massive payoffs.

In pursuit of same, here are my thoughts on Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races, which begin with the sixth race on the Del Mar card, scheduled to go to post at 2:45 p.m.

$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint

Speedy grass runners kick off the Breeders’ Cup action in this 5-furlong affair featuring eight international entrants and four U.S.-based horses.

Kentucky-bred Ecoro Sieg is the 7-2 morning-line favorite after comfortably winning both her starts in Japan on the front end and breaking a 20-year-old record for 2-year-olds by running 1,200 meters (just shy of 6 furlongs) in 1:07.2 at Chukyo racetrack in her second start despite breaking slightly slow.

She’s likely to have company on the front end from Governor Sam to her outside, however, and that could set the stage for an off-the-pace runner to tag her late. I’m going to take a shot with Shareholder (15-1), who won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at England’s Royal Ascot meeting in June before fading badly in the Prix Morny (G1) over a soft course at Deauville in France next out. I’ll toss in Ecoro Sieg and Europeans Aesterius (9-2), Big Mojo (4-1) and Whistlejacket (5-1) in hopes of landing a juicy exacta right off the bat.

$2 million Juvenile Fillies

The action shifts to the dirt track for the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies.

Morning-line 5-2 favorite Scottish Lassie, impressive winner of the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct in her second start, drew the outside post in the field of 10, but should be able to tuck in behind the leaders before unleashing her powerful closing punch in the stretch.

The Bob Baffert-trained Nooni (15-1) poses a front-running threat, while Alcibiades Stakes (G1) winner Immersive (3-1) and well-bred Japanese runner American Bikini (5-1) appear capable of springing the upset. Quickick (10-1) could inflate the exotic wagers by running into the top three late.

$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf

Undefeated Lake Victoria, the 8-5 morning-line favorite trained by legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, should be able to use her speed effectively from the rail. She’s won all four starts in Europe and will be a single on many multirace tickets.

I can’t knock her and agree she’s the horse to beat, but I’ll use long shots Heavens Gate (12-1), Abientot (30-1) and Vixen (15-1) in exactas in an attempt to add some value to the equation.

$2 million Juvenile

Back to the dirt we go for the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile.

East Avenue, the 5-2 morning-line favorite off his powerful front-running victory in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in his second start, drew the rail and should get a nice ground-saving trip. But the Godolphin homebred is unlikely to be able to open a clear early lead as he did in that race with the speedy Baffert runner Getaway Car (20-1) slotted just to his outside.

He might be good enough to put that one away, but I think Ferocious (6-1) will post a big threat from off the pace and can get to the front in deep stretch. The Chad Brown-trained Chancer McPatrick (3-1) figures to be flying late and could tag them all if the early pace is hot.

$1 million Juvenile Turf

Europeans have dominated this one-mile grass race in recent years and seem likely to again get the lion’s share of the money.

The secret to winning the Juvenile Turf has often been as simple as identifying the best Aidan O’Brien-trained horse, as the trainer has captured it a record six times, all with jockey Ryan Moore in the irons.

Unfortunately for him (and handicappers employing that angle), his highly regarded colt Henri Matisse (6-1) drew post 13 in the 14-horse field, meaning he is likely to lose ground around the first turn at least.

When O’Brien hasn’t won the race, British trainer Charles Appleby has often done the deed. Appleby, who has conditioned three Juvenile Turf winners for the global breeding and racing powerhouse Godolphin, sends out Al Qudra (4-1) in post 4 and Aomori City (10-1) in post 12.

I’ll try to hit a trifecta to cap the day, using those three on top and adding Seagulls Eleven (15-1), the speedy U.S.-based runner Mentee (15-1) and New Century, the 5-2 favorite after beating Al Qudra in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine in September, in the lower rungs.

Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.