UNLV-Boise State preview: Rematch essentially a CFP play-in game
BOISE, Idaho — The teams that met in last year’s Mountain West championship game will meet for the second straight season to decide the conference winner.
The only difference this time is that the game has serious College Football Playoff implications.
Boise State was 7-0 in conference play and UNLV 6-1, its only loss against the Broncos.
UNLV is led by coach Barry Odom and Boise State by Spencer Danielson, the conference’s Coach of the Year.
Game information
Who: UNLV (10-2, 6-1 MW) at Boise State (11-1, 7-0)
What: Mountain West championship game
When: 5 p.m. Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: Fox (Jason Benetti, Brock Huard and Allison Williams)
Radio: KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)
Line: Boise State -4; total 57½
Series history
Boise State leads 10-3 and has won eight straight against the Rebels. The series began in 1972 and went through 1977 before being rekindled in 2011. The 2021 game was canceled because of the COVID pandemic.
Last meeting
The Broncos came to Allegiant Stadium on Oct. 25 and left a 29-24 winner in front of the largest crowd (42,228) to witness a UNLV home game in school history. It broke the previous record of 42,075 in 2002 at Sam Boyd Stadium for a game against Wisconsin.
UNLV jumped to 10-3 lead against Boise State, only to see the Broncos score the next 17 points for a 20-10 halftime advantage.
The Rebels regained the lead with a 14-3 third quarter but didn’t score again. Boise State clinched the victory with 12:38 remaining when Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty scored on fourth down from 1 yard.
“I figured it would come down to turnover margin and having to find a way to win in the fourth quarter,” Odom said. “I am devastated for our team that we couldn’t find a way to win that one. … We didn’t play real well as a team, but our guys battled. There is no consolation. We lost the game, and I’m frustrated as a head coach that I couldn’t get us in position to go win that.”
Bold predictions
1. Jeanty, the nation’s leading rusher with 2,288 yards and an average of 191 a game, will be held to less than 140 yards.
2. Jackson Woodard, the senior UNLV linebacker and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, will have an interception.
3. UNLV wide receiver Ricky White III will get his fifth blocked punt of the season.
Storyline
This is essentially a play-in game for a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff. UNLV’s hope is to steal a bid with a victory.
Something has to give here. UNLV is 6-0 on the road, and Boise State is 6-0 at home.
The weather isn’t supposed to be all that challenging, with a forecast of overcast skies and a high of 44 degrees. UNLV has played (and won) in much worse conditions away from home.
The first meeting could have have gone either way, but a late first-half turnover by UNLV was turned into seven points by the No. 10 Broncos. For the No. 19 Rebels to win, they likely will have to play close to mistake-free football.
It won’t be easy. Boise State has an .898 winning percentage (141-16) on its blue turf since 2000.
“I think any time you get a rematch with a team, it would be a little silly to say you’re not going to make adjustments,” UNLV senior center Jack Hasz said. “They’re the same team. I know they’re banged up a little in certain spots, so it’s just one of those things where you have to attack and make that a big part of our game.”
When UNLV has the ball
Many were unsure what might occur offensively when quarterback Matthew Sluka departed the program three games into the season.
Hajj-Malik Williams quickly quieted all fears.
The senior quarterback and transfer from Campbell has run the go-go offense with total precision, averaging 158 passing yards per game and 70 on the ground.
His main target continues to be White, who averages 85 yards and has scored 11 touchdowns.
The Rebels have also found a level of consistency on the ground behind sophomore back Jai’Den Thomas and his average of 69 yards.
The Broncos would be smart not to sleep on UNLV tight end Kaleo Ballungay and his six touchdown catches, especially near the goal line, where the senior has become a reliable weapon for Williams.
The Broncos rank fourth in total defense among Mountain West teams but only ninth in pass efficiency defense. The Rebels could make some noise through the air.
Five players from Boise State have at least 50 tackles on the season.
When Boise State has the ball
It often becomes the Jeanty Show, and for good reason.
He also leads the nation in rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (29) and all-purpose yards (2,390).
“I think he’s the best player in college football,” Odom said. “The amount of carries he has, the way his offensive line blocks, he creates plays every single week.”
In the previous meeting, UNLV held Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries, an average of 3.9 yards. UNLV is the only team to limit Jeanty to less than 4 yards per carry.
But one player does not make an 11-1 team.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 2,556 yards and 21 touchdowns while completing 62 percent of his passes. He’s also tough to control on the ground when scrambling, consistently making plays up the middle.
It means UNLV has to be sound in its rush lanes and not get too far past the ball when pursuing it. The Rebels need to keep Madsen in the pocket and be good on the back end against the pass.
One X factor for Boise State is its tight ends and their size, creating mismatches on a weekly basis. It’s one area that affected UNLV in the first meeting.
The pick
UNLV 27, Boise State 24
Ed Graney, a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing, can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on X.
