Favorites not faring well in Derby preps

The last chance for most horses to win their way into the Kentucky Derby will be Saturday with the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.

The Kentucky Derby field is limited to the top 20 horses in graded earnings. Thus, with the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby both Grade 1 races, these 3-year-olds must get it done now.

The Blue Grass features a stronger group, headed by Hansen (6-5), last year's juvenile Eclipse Award champ. But as we've seen in this spring's Derby preps, favorites are taking a serious beating.

The co-second choices are Howe Great (6-1) and Dullahan (6-1), the 1-2 finishers in the grassy Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The synthetic Polytrack at Keeneland can play like a grass course, so a turf resume is a positive here.

My choice is Prospective (10-1), a horse I gave out to win the Tampa Bay Derby. Trainer Mark Casse has given this colt five weeks between starts, so he should be ready to run another big race. He also won both of his starts at Woodbine, which has the same Polytrack surface as Keeneland.

The Arkansas Derby looks more like the Bob Baffert Invitational, as his two colts are the morning-line favorites: Bodemeister (9-5) and Secret Circle (5-2). Add in that Baffert has won with all four of his starters at Oaklawn, and he's pitching a perfect game, too.

Bodemeister was dealt a double bad hand, as he drew the outside post 11, a huge negative, and lost his regular rider, Rafael Bejarano, to stablemate Secret Circle. Mike Smith takes over, so Bodemeister remains in good hands.

Bodemeister ran second last out in the San Felipe to Creative Cause. Baffert is taking the blinkers off him Saturday, but a bigger issue is he has only $60,000 in graded earnings. Bodemeister must finish no worse than second to keep his Derby hopes alive.

Of the two Baffert colts, I would favor Secret Circle, who has won twice at Oaklawn this spring in the Rebel and Southwest. He rated kindly in the Rebel for Bejarano, which is the key to this horse winning over a distance of ground.

Of the long shots, I like Cozzetti (15-1) from rail post 1 for trainer Dale Romans. He is improving with each start and chased good ones in Prospective, Howe Great and Liaison in his past three starts.

■ HANDICAPPING SEMINAR -- Palace Station will host a free handicapping seminar today for the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. It starts at 6 p.m. and features Richie Saber of Gaming Today, Ralph Siraco of "Race Day Las Vegas" and Vic Viveo for Palace Station.

Richard Eng's horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick.