Favored Boise State can’t afford one slip

One shot is what Kellen Moore gets to keep Boise State relevant for the next four months. So far, Moore has been as close to perfect as a quarterback can get, and he'll need to stay that way.

In the Bowl Championship Scam era, teams such as Alabama and Oklahoma can lose in September -- sometimes even in November -- and stay in the hunt for the national title. If the Broncos lose one, they are done.

Seven minutes into the college football season, UNLV was knocked out of the BCS discussion Thursday night. The Rebels stepped out of their little league and got crushed, but amazingly cashed for their bettors.

Some matchups make no sense. Troy Aikman and Hulk Hogan on a Rent-A-Center commercial and UNLV-Wisconsin fall into that category.

Boise State and Georgia make a more intriguing pair and the highlight of a better Saturday schedule. It's a high-risk, high-reward game set to make or break the Broncos.

"This game represents Boise's biggest obstacle of the season," said VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe.

The Broncos are 3- to 3.5-point favorites in the neutral-site game at the Georgia Dome, so it won't be a neutral environment for the Bulldogs in the heart of Southeastern Conference country.

But Moore has been in these positions before, leading Boise State to victories over Virginia Tech and Oregon in its past two season openers. The senior left-hander is 38-2 as a starter.

Moore is working with a new set of receivers, but the Broncos will start 18 seniors, including 10 on defense. This is not another sacrificial lamb from the Mountain West.

"Most of the bets are coming in on Boise," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "But I don't think the game is really going to get the attention of the bettors until Saturday morning, and they have all day to bet it."

In early June, the Golden Nugget sports book opened the Broncos as 6-point favorites. The line dropped to 1.5 a month ago before settling in the middle.

The pressure is on Georgia coach Mark Richt after a 6-7 season. The eighth major loss he suffered was star wideout A.J. Green to the NFL. But the Bulldogs do return sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray and a defense loaded with speed and strength.

Iskoe said laying a field goal and a hook might be too big an obstacle for Boise State to cover.

The Broncos, 6-1 in their past seven games against BCS conference opponents, were taken to the woodshed in a 48-13 loss at Georgia in 2005. That game was between the hedges and in the humidity of Athens, however, and Boise State didn't have a passer like Moore.

"Richt's job is arguably in jeopardy," Iskoe said. "Murray is considered by many to be the best at the QB position in the SEC. Boise has been a player on the national scene for several seasons, but has not often been tested by elite programs with the kind of athletes they will face here.

"And now Boise is favored and will be taken seriously by a motivated Georgia team that knows the importance of this game. Look for the Bulldogs' speed and conditioning to be keys to the upset win."

The sports books will be busy Saturday with Boise State-Georgia and Oregon-Louisiana State both playing in prime time. But on Thursday, with a full schedule of NFL preseason games, Kornegay said UNLV and Wisconsin staged "the game that's getting the most action by far."

The Badgers were favored by 35.5 points most of the week. The line dipped to 35 and 34.5 at different books before kickoff.

"The bigger money is coming in on the Rebels," said Kornegay, adding "the grind" of smaller wagers on Wisconsin put the ticket count at more than a 2-to-1 ratio for the favorite.

"It's common practice that the general public bets the better team," Kornegay said. "It doesn't happen all the time, but for the most part, that's the pattern we see."

It appeared the Badgers were easy money after they rolled to a 27-0 lead in the second quarter. It was 51-3 midway through the third. But UNLV snuck through the back door for a lucky cover in a 51-17 loss.

A missed extra-point kick contributed to a bad beat for Wisconsin backers. Welcome back to football betting.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS -- Here are six plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

MICHIGAN (-14) over Western Michigan; South Florida (+11) over NOTRE DAME; Fresno State (+10) over CALIFORNIA; Georgia (+3.5) over Boise State; HAWAII (-7) over Colorado; Middle Tennessee (+17) over PURDUE.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.