VCU bettors outsmart babbling stiffs

When a double-digit favorite such as Kansas bites the dust, the common reaction is shock and awe. Bill Self had a loaded team and a clear path to the championship. The odds were in his favor.

Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart must have been watching too much TV, because when he said, "Nobody really thought we could win," he was wrong.

Some bettors who populate the Las Vegas sports books are a lot smarter than Jay Bilas, Dick Vitale and the other babbling stiffs who smile for the cameras and always pick Duke and the favorites to advance in the NCAA Tournament.

It was not a shock to see the Jayhawks get rocked 71-61 by VCU on Sunday. The Rams were 11½-point underdogs and plus-600 on the money line, and several bettors thought they could win.

"A lot of people are going to think the books crushed them with VCU knocking off Kansas. That is the total opposite of what we needed," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said.

The Hilton took enough money-line play on VCU that Kornegay called the day a loser for his book. He needed the Jayhawks to win but not cover.

More college basketball bettors are realizing the value of underdogs in March, especially the hot 'dogs such as VCU and Butler.

An odd group is gathering for the Final Four, and it also would be wrong to say nobody predicted this. In ESPN's bracket contest, there were 5.9 million entries, and two forecasted Butler, VCU, Connecticut and Kentucky to reach Houston.

I hit none of the four. I was convinced Ohio State would win the title, and that was costly. But I did bet on Butler and VCU six straight times for six straight winners.

The Bulldogs, normally cast in the underdog role, opened as 2½-point favorites over the 11th-seeded Rams in Saturday's first national semifinal. It's a tough matchup to call between two bet-on teams.

But Butler has the experience edge, losing to Duke in last year's title game. The Bulldogs' coach, 34-year-old Brad Stevens, is a baby-faced assassin, and forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack know how to win close games.

"It seems like every game Butler plays goes down to the last minute," Kornegay said.

In this tournament, that was true for every game but one. The Bulldogs beat Florida by three in overtime, Wisconsin by seven, Pittsburgh by one and Old Dominion by two.

"I think Kansas played right into VCU's hands by running up and down the court with them," said Mike Colbert, M Resort sports book director for Cantor Gaming. "Butler will play a smarter game and slow it down a little bit. I actually think Butler is very capable of winning it all."

The Bulldogs were offered at about 200-1 odds to win the championship, and Kornegay said there were few takers. VCU was a 200-1 field bet at the Hilton before the tournament, and when the odds were reposted a week ago, the Rams drew some action at 100-1 and 60-1, Kornegay said.

VCU was an underdog in all five of its NCAA Tournament wins. The opponents were favored by a combined 34 points, and the Rams covered the spread by a combined 94 points. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, the odds against VCU winning all five games was 1,371-1.

"To think you're going to have either Butler or VCU in the championship game is very appealing for a lot of people," Kornegay said. "You have two traditional powers, and on the other side of the bracket it's like you're looking at the NIT Final Four."

In the other semifinal, Kentucky is a 2-point favorite over Connecticut. The Wildcats were 1-point favorites in a 76-69 victory over North Carolina on Sunday.

This Final Four is not the most popular because of the absence of high-profile teams, but the opposites in the bracket make it an attraction.

"I've already heard a few of the people, the talking heads, say this will not create the interest because the teams don't have marquee names," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books. "I know we pick on Dick Vitale, but there's a million like him. He changes his mind and he's got a new team.

"I like it this way. You're going to have one of the long shots playing for the title. I believe there's some intrigue to it. The handle is going to be the same no matter what four teams are there."

The Jayhawks are not there, proving a lot of people wrong. But the Butler-VCU half of the bracket looks just right.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.