Motivation, location favor Florida over Penn State

A year after faking his coaching death, Urban Meyer is trying to go out in style at Florida for a second time. And this time, he's not coming back.

As far as I know, few people get to watch their funeral -- seeing tears shed and hearing all sorts of great things said -- and then surprise everyone by springing back to life.

Meyer pulled off the trick. He returned from a brief, emotional retirement to coach the Gators this season, and everyone was happy to welcome him back.

As it turned out, he was better off riding into the sunset the first time. Meyer's curtain call, by Florida standards, was a fiasco.

The Gators (7-5) limp into the Outback Bowl on Saturday as 7-point favorites over Penn State (7-5). It's an ironic matchup with Meyer, 46, dealing with coaching burnout and facing Joe Paterno, who is 84 and determined to keep hanging on in his 45th season leading the Nittany Lions.

Statistics and Xs and Os don't indicate Florida is a great bet laying a touchdown. But the motivation for Meyer's players to send him out a winner might make Florida a worthy favorite.

"From the comments I'm seeing, the Gators players really want this for Meyer," said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host. "I think it's going to be pretty much the same thing we saw with Maryland sending Ralph Friedgen out with a win.

"Paterno has been amazing in bowls, so the Lions will no doubt be well-prepped. But I think they walk into a buzz saw here, and I'm expecting a huge effort from Florida. Penn State is really slow and really average. Florida's offense is really average, and maybe that's the reason they don't cover, but I'll take my chances."

Meyer announced his second retirement Dec. 8, after the Gators lost two of their final three regular-season games. They have not won a meaningful game since slipping by Georgia 34-31 on Oct. 30.

Junior quarterback John Brantley has been a bust as Tim Tebow's replacement, so Florida will rely almost entirely on its running attack with Trey Burton and Chris Rainey possessing the speed to beat a slow Penn State defense.

The Nittany Lions won four of six to wrap up their regular season, but they have few quality wins and a 24-point loss to Ohio State on their resume.

Paterno has been tough to beat in bowls, and there's no knocking a coaching legend, yet he's borderline senile now and barely seems to pay attention to what's happening on the field.

With the Gators playing close to home in Tampa, Fla., and rallying behind Meyer, lay the points or put Florida on a teaser at minus-1.

Another major coaching story a year ago was the hiring of Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. Kelly, like Meyer, endured a rough fall, but the Fighting Irish have won three straight games to get to 7-5.

Notre Dame is an underdog to Miami in today's Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. The line stuck at 3 for two weeks but is dipping to 2½ at several Las Vegas sports books. I bet the Irish and took 3.

The Hurricanes have an edge in speed, but coach Randy Shannon was fired, and that should swing the focus in favor of Notre Dame.

Kelly has done good work with freshman quarterback Tommy Rees, who is 3-0 as a starter with wins against Utah, Army and Southern California. The Irish have a big-time playmaker in wideout Michael Floyd, and their defense made remarkable improvement.

Four more plays for the weekend: Michigan State (+10) over Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, Wisconsin (+3) over Texas Christian in the Rose, Stanford (-3) over Virginia Tech in the Orange and Arkansas (+3½) over Ohio State in the Sugar.

In a popular bowl pool run by Royce Feour, the retired Review-Journal legend, I started 8-1 and was in a tie for first.

It was too good to be true. I turned into Wile E. Coyote, stumbling into a dark shack filled with dynamite and lighting a match. I lost six of the next seven.

Sometimes it's better to quit while you're ahead, which would have been a wise move for Brett Favre and Urban Meyer.

At least Meyer still has a shot to go out a winner.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.