Ex-pizza delivery guy could deliver against Boise State
If a pizza delivery guy shows up at your door, don't dismiss him as an underachiever in a dead-end job. There's a chance he could end up with a starting quarterback job someday, and Hawaii's Bryant Moniz is the proof behind the pie.
A year ago, Moniz delivered pizzas to pay for college and help support his infant daughter. The former walk-on, now one of the nation's hottest passers, is about to show up at Boise State's door.
A wise, old sports gambler once advised me to always respect an underdog. Moniz and the Warriors are big 'dogs on Saturday, but how much respect will they earn?
Boise State is a 21-point favorite over Hawaii on the blue turf. The line has inched down from 22½, and 27 was the recommended opener from Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
"The money is definitely coming in on Hawaii's side, and it's not dumb money, that's for sure," said handicapper Dave Cokin, a local ESPN Radio host. "Maybe Hawaii is that good, but I'm not buying it yet."
I've bet the Warriors five weeks in a row, buying in more each week. Hawaii (7-2) has won its past five games -- over Idaho, Utah State, UNR, Fresno State and Louisiana Tech -- by an average of 24.2 points.
Moniz has passed for 3,247 yards and 25 touchdowns, and Warriors coach Greg McMackin is fielding a tough defense.
But this is second-ranked Boise State (7-0), and its quarterback, Kellen Moore, is better than Moniz.
"I think Boise is going to hammer them," Cokin said. "I don't think I'm going to lay that kind of wood because 21 points is a ton of points. But if I had to, I think I'd bet Boise."
I won't be surprised if Hawaii gets hammered, because that's what the Broncos do to teams with regularity. So my opinion is not strong, but I'll bet a few pizzas on Moniz as a three-touchdown underdog.
For the record, Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele made the Warriors his "Power Sweep" newsletter Underdog Play of the Week, writing that there's "nothing fluky about Hawaii's current run" and picking Boise State to win, 41-27.
The Broncos join the Mountain West Conference next year. The top game in the nation this week is a meeting of MWC unbeatens as Texas Christian (9-0) visits Utah (8-0).
ESPN's "College GameDay" show will air from Salt Lake City, where the Utes own a 21-game winning streak. The Horned Frogs, led by QB Andy Dalton and a relentless defense, are 5-point favorites.
"I don't know how you can lay points to Utah at home," said Cokin, who's likely to pass on the game.
According to Playbook.com handicapper Marc Lawrence, a trend points to the Utes. Try to follow this: From the sixth game out in the regular season, when two undefeated teams meet, underdogs are 40-18 against the spread since 1980, including 26-7-2 ATS if the favored team is off a straight-up and ATS win in its past game.
TCU is off an easy cover in a 48-6 victory over UNLV. That game went under the total of 54½ when the Horned Frogs missed a late point-after kick.
This is a rare week, with the Mountain West overshadowing the Southeastern Conference.
But the SEC still has Alabama-Louisiana State and allegedly the highest-paid player in college football, Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton.
■ CLOSING NUMBERS -- A couple of bad breaks last week dropped my season record to 32-33-3. It feels like better luck could be on my side. Two days ago, I received this e-mail:
"My name is Captain Matthew Stamford of the US Marine corps stationed in Kabul, Afghanistan. I found two million dollars stashed in a couple of barrels while on patrol. I need someone to help me move it to a safer place, please have it in mind that there is no danger involved. For details, you may contact me "
I'm optimistic the $2 million will be arriving soon, and I'll split it 50-50 with Capt. Stamford. In the meantime, here are eight plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
MICHIGAN (-3) over Illinois; Hawaii (+21) over BOISE STATE; Navy (+3) over EAST CAROLINA; Oklahoma (-3) over TEXAS A&M; UTAH (+5) over Texas Christian; LOUISIANA TECH (Pick) over Fresno State; Alabama (-6) over LOUISIANA STATE; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-5½) over Arizona State.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
