Budget woes, special session … now keep eye on election filing

Let's watch for two potential trends when filing for elections starts today. Will more people file? And down the line will campaign dollars flow where they hadn't gone before?

I suspect that over the next two weeks, in the aftermath of the special legislative session, more people might file to run for the Legislature, and not just for those 17 open seats created by term limits.

Gov. Jim Gibbons seems bound and determined to prove me wrong by filing for a second term, when I said he wouldn't. He insists he's running for re-election despite his low approval ratings, personal scandals and pitiful fundraising.

Let's see whether the final budget plan brings more money into Gibbons' campaign coffers. After all, he raised less than $200,000 in 2009 and spent most of it already. Will mining, gaming and business suddenly pour money into his election? Or anyone else's?

As Democrats crow that they softened the worst of Gibbons' proposals to balance the budget and reduced the cuts in education from 10 percent to 7 percent, as Republicans crow they prevented the Democrats from going too far trying to raise fees, and as the governor crows that he kept the state lean and in the black, perhaps more citizens are likely to say, "I have an idea."

Over the filing period, which ends March 12, we'll know whether legislators face more opposition as the effect of their most recent actions becomes clearer.

Other ramifications of this special session will become obvious before the elections in June and November, as the K-12 and higher education systems deal with cuts that total in the millions, even if the negotiated reduction is 7 percent.

Don't even think that there were any major policy decisions made in the session. The legislators and the governor sculpted the state's budget and, using estimates that might or might not be accurate, came up with a plan to balance spending with anticipated revenues. But there was no long-term fix.

The gaming industry successfully argued that if required to pay an additional $32 million a year, hotel companies would be forced to lay off 1,000 people, on top of the 34,000 employees gaming has already terminated in tough times.

Gaming's plea might have carried more oomph if Steve Wynn hadn't chosen that day to announce a $67 million expansion at Encore's pool and nightclub area, which would provide another 400 jobs.

Don't count on the Big Fix happening in the next regular session in 2011 either.

There was speechifying by state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas, and term-limited Sen. Randolph Townsend, R-Reno, that it's time for a broad-based business tax, but I've heard that ever since the late 1980s. Even then the Legislature promised to fix a system that relied on the erratic cycles of the sales and gaming taxes. But they haven't done so.

Nor is it likely they'll do so in 2011. If Gibbons wins another term, he won't take that lead, and if there's a new governor, he won't want the political grief that would come with a business tax.

If the economy is still in the dumps, business will argue it's not the right time to raise taxes. And if the economy perks up, more money will naturally flow into state coffers.

The tax experts say the same thing decade after decade, and Nevada lawmakers don't listen, or at least not enough of them listen.

But while this was a nearly $900 million budget deficit, people are already talking about the $3 billion deficit awaiting in the next budget cycle facing the 2011 Legislature.

The answer is more cuts or more taxes; the choices are limited.

Come to think of it, who would want that job? Or the governor's job, either, for that matter?

Jane Ann Morrison's column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call 702- 383-0275. She also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/morrison.