Resting stars could backfire for Indianapolis

Maybe pulling Peyton Manning in the third quarter was the right thing to do for the Indianapolis Colts. It can be argued that maybe it was the correct move.

If the Colts go on to win the Super Bowl, what happened on the last Sunday in December won't matter.

But right now, in the aftermath of an ugly 29-15 loss to the New York Jets, it's impossible to say benching Manning, the league's best quarterback and Most Valuable Player, was definitely the thing to do. I will argue that Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis' rookie coach, made a mistake.

Caldwell's questionable call not only cost the Colts a shot at a perfect season and the top spot in NFL history, it allowed negativity and second-guessing to surface. Manning was frowning, the Indianapolis fans were booing, and a team that was 14-0 suddenly lost its momentum.

"I think it could be disastrous. It could come back to bite them," MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood said. "You could see Manning's face, and he was not happy about the whole situation. None of the players looked like they were happy to give away an undefeated season.

"They probably won't say anything. But behind closed doors, there could be some grumbling. I couldn't understand it. It could have more potential to backfire than do good."

And that's the point: What good did it do? Manning is still healthy, obviously, but the Jets were barely a threat to touch him anyway.

The Colts are still the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed, and the Super Bowl is still the goal. But if Manning had stayed in the game and beat the Jets, the atmosphere in Indianapolis would be decidedly more positive today.

Instead, there's a sense of disappointment.

Caldwell pulled Manning, wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark, among others, with a 15-10 lead and 5:36 remaining in the third quarter.

Without their stars, the Colts fell flat on their faces. Imagine watching "The Godfather," and seeing Tony Danza, Dudley Moore and Martin Short in the roles meant for Marlon Brando, Al Pacino and James Caan.

The Colts' season could have been a classic movie. Now they will go into Week 17 as about 3-point underdogs at Buffalo.

The San Diego Chargers, the AFC's No. 2 seed, are razor sharp going into the playoffs. The same can't be said for the Colts.

"I always have a strong opinion on everything, and I really don't know," professional gambler Steve Fezzik said, when asked if Caldwell's decision was wise. "I would say either do it or don't do it. Don't have it shrouded in secrecy. It is a disservice to the fans. I would say rest the starters on the road, play them at home.

"There's conflicting data. There are teams that mail it in and lay an egg in the postseason. Now we know they're going to mail it in. The Colts won't be playing this week. We've got Buffalo against some imposters."

New England went for a perfect regular season in 2007 and achieved it. The Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the New York Giants, but the Patriots' downfall had nothing to do with playing Tom Brady and the starters in Weeks 16 and 17. The Giants got hot at the right time.

The Patriots are heating up now, as are the Chargers. Dallas and Green Bay are making moves in the NFC.

According to closing lines, underdogs are 7-6-2 against the spread in Week 16.

Tampa Bay pulled one of the season's major upsets, stunning the stumbling New Orleans Saints 20-17 in overtime. The Buccaneers, 14-point underdogs, were plus-650 on the money line.

Rood said sharp money showed late on the Jets and Patriots, among a few other teams. New England closed as a 9-point favorite in a 35-7 victory over Jacksonville.

"That was the most shocking score on the board. I thought the Jaguars would play more inspired," Rood said. "This is the time of year when you see some teams start to roll over."

The Packers rolled over Seattle 48-10, for example. But the Seahawks have played dead for three weeks.

Indianapolis closed as a 31/2-point favorite, down from 51/2, and was outscored 19-0 after Manning was yanked from the game.

So the Colts won't be rolling into the postseason, and we'll soon see if Caldwell's call did some harm and no apparent good.

Contact sports betting reporter and columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.