Belichick-Brady wall too steep for Broncos
As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, it's tough to beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. If you bet the NFL, you want those two in your corner more often than not.
Brady is 23-1 straight up in his past 24 regular-season starts. Belichick is 24-9 against the spread in his past 33 games as a road favorite.
Who can top that?
The Josh McDaniels-Kyle Orton combination is off to a good start. The Denver Broncos are 4-0 straight up and against the spread with McDaniels and Orton calling the shots.
There are countless ways to handicap football. The simplest approach is to first look at the coach and quarterback, and in this case determine Belichick and Brady are far more reliable than McDaniels and Orton.
New England is at Denver on Sunday, when we're supposed to find out if the unbeaten Broncos are legitimate. The truth is the Broncos will be tough to beat all season because of their defense.
McDaniels obviously learned something about coaching while an offensive assistant to Belichick, and Orton is riding a lucky streak as the league's only regular starter not to throw an interception.
But the most important ingredient to Denver's success has been the 3-4 defense that coordinator Mike Nolan puts on the field. The addition of veteran safety Brian Dawkins as the leader was a shrewd move that got overlooked in the offseason.
Dawkins and the Denver defense have allowed 26 points through four games, and the Broncos shut out Tony Romo after Dallas scored 10 first-quarter points last week.
But the Cowboys lack competent coaching, Romo is erratic partly because he has mediocre receivers, and the Dallas defense ranks 26th in the league.
The Patriots have none of those problems. Belichick is not Wade Phillips, Brady can throw to Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and the New England defense ranks seventh in the league. When the Broncos blitz Brady, he can burn them. And Belichick's defense can rattle Orton.
I've been on Denver three times this season, so I'm a believer. But now the Broncos are running into the Belichick-Brady wall.
Belichick will school his pupil, and Brady will make the key plays as New England narrowly covers as a 3-point favorite. The line has dropped from 31/2, so lay the field goal.
Four more plays for Week 5 (Home team in CAPS):
• CHIEFS (+8) over Cowboys: Romo is running hot and cold, so Dallas might not coast in this spot. According to VegasInsider.com, road teams that faced 0-4 opponents the past five seasons went 1-5 ATS. According to Playbook.com, Kansas City is 17-2 ATS as a home underdog of four or more points versus an opponent with at least one loss. The Cowboys are fragile favorites.
• PANTHERS (-31/2) over Redskins: This is a major coaching mismatch. Carolina's John Fox had a bye week to prep. Washington will be saying bye to Jim Zorn soon. The Panthers need to get the ball to their playmakers, receiver Steve Smith and running back DeAngelo Williams, and let the Redskins unravel.
• Falcons (+21/2) over 49ERS: Hard-nosed coach Mike Singletary has San Francisco on a roll. But the 49ers' offense is somewhat limited without running back Frank Gore. Atlanta was 5-0 straight up off a loss last season, and quarterback Matt Ryan has the weapons to put more points on the board.
• TITANS (+4) over Colts: Tennessee got crushed last week in a game that made no sense. I've been burned twice on the Titans and twice by going against the Colts. This play makes little sense, but several sharp handicappers are on the Titans. So I'll take one more shot with Jeff Fisher, who is 7-0 in his past seven as a home 'dog and 5-1 ATS in his past six against Indianapolis.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Season: 10-10
Contact sports betting reporter/columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
