Columnist says her political instincts were off in three election battles

Confession time. Don't know if it's good for the soul, but under the category of Political Predictions Gone Awry, I have been woefully wrong three times.

First confession: I thought the clout of the Las Vegas Police Protective Association would make Glenn Trowbridge the new Las Vegas city councilman. The association, with 2,700 members, had turned on Stavros Anthony, a police captain, and bombarded voters in Ward 4 with ugly fliers portraying Anthony as a liar and an embarrassment.

Anthony campaigned against Trowbridge, but he also campaigned against "union bosses." And "union bosses" lost.

This race also revealed conflict between the PPA, which bargains for police officers, and the 425-member Police Managers and Supervisors Association, which backed Anthony. The PPA and the PMSA are more at odds than outsiders realize and competition between the two groups played a behind-the-scenes role in Ward 4 in a struggle for political power.

The PPA has been the leading endorsement organization for police in Southern Nevada and only recently did I learn they expected the PMSA to defer to them when making endorsements.

But the PMSA didn't. Along with three other law enforcement groups, the PMSA endorsed Anthony, which weakened the benefit of having the PPA endorsement.

The PPA endorsement of Trowbridge raised enough doubts about Anthony's judgment and helped Trowbridge in the primary, where he finished ahead of Anthony by 8 percentage points. During the course of the campaign, the PPA mailers evolved from endorsing Trowbridge, to hammering Anthony's ethics, to vicious. One final PPA mailer showed Anthony saying: "If my lips are moving, you know I'm lying."

Anthony won't forget that.

When early voting returns were released Tuesday, Anthony trailed by more than 3 percentage points. But when the final tally was released, Anthony had scraped out a 10-vote victory, using his opposition to a new city hall as a wedge issue distinguishing himself from Trowbridge. The Election Day votes made Anthony a winner, unless a recount proves otherwise.

The PPA, which had hammered Anthony on the behalf of labor-friendly Trowbridge, had failed, losing bragging rights as a powerful political force in local politics, and making the union the biggest loser in Tuesday's municipal race.

And I never saw it coming.

Second confession: I went from thinking North Las Vegas City Councilman William Robinson didn't have a snowball's chance of becoming mayor to wondering whether his campaign strategy of holding on to Democrats and beating Councilwoman Shari Buck among black voters just might work in a low turnout race.

I should have gone with my first instincts, that he couldn't overcome the post-primary revelation he had been investigated in the early 1990s on bribery allegations, although never indicted.

Seeking drama, whether hope or dismay, I was at Robinson's headquarters when the early returns were reported and Buck was leading him 57-43. Dismay won. "It's going to be a long night," said Robinson, who had already thanked his supporters "if we should, by some freak of nature, lose."

"The 15-year-old FBI investigation killed him," said his political consultant Jim Ferrence. "We lost the Democrats along the way."

When the night was over, Buck won with 55 percent of the vote.

(At her celebration party, Buck said she's already been contacted by three people interested in an appointment to the rest of her term on the council. Former Clark County School Board Trustee Ruth Johnson, unsuccessful mayoral candidate Ned Thomas -- the Democrat who took grief from Democrats when he endorsed her -- and community activist Richard Cherchio are all interested. Notice I'm making no predictions since the field of candidates isn't complete yet.)

Speaking of appointments, here's my third confession: When the Clark County commissioners selected two new Las Vegas Justices of the Peace on Tuesday, I didn't think Melanie Tobiasson would get it because she's a Republican and all seven commissioners are Democrats. Wrong again. Tobiasson, a Clark County deputy district attorney, and defense attorney Joseph Sciscento made the final cut out of six candidates vetted by the Judicial Selection Committee.

Of course, she's been a pro tem justice of the peace and as she told the screening committee, "I've been doing the job for 10 years, I could do the job tomorrow."

I thought Vincent Ochoa, the only minority in the group, would advance. He did not.

Zip for three. Obviously I need more work on my prognosticating.

Jane Ann Morrison's column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0275. She also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/morrison/.