Oddsmaker: Rebels to improve

It's tough to stop UNLV running back Frank "The Tank" Summers when he gets rolling.

The problem last year, however, was the 5-foot-10-inch, 230-pounder didn't roll often enough, and he played for a team that had no chance of going bowling.

Expect to see some big changes during Summers' senior season, if Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele is correct in his analysis. And his outlook for the Rebels is surprisingly optimistic.

Steele (philsteele.com) uses eight sets of power ratings to help make his college football forecasts. Now, sit down for this stunner -- six of those power ratings say UNLV will be bowl eligible.

"I think UNLV is an underrated team," said Steele, who picks the Rebels fourth in the Mountain West Conference. "I like the schedule with seven home games, and they return 14 starters, which is (tied for) second most in the conference."

The Rebels, 2-10 last season and 6-29 in coach Mike Sanford's three years, are not impressing the oddsmakers.

UNLV's regular-season win total is set at about 4 at most Las Vegas sports books. The Hilton has 41/2 (under minus-160) and the Plaza has 4 (under minus-120).

Sophomore quarterback Omar Clayton has only three career starts on his resume. But he has two dependable wide receivers, junior Ryan Wolfe and senior Casey Flair, and an experienced offensive line.

Clayton also can hand off to Summers, a bruising but underused back. Summers rushed for 928 yards and six touchdowns on 202 carries last season. He carried the ball 16.8 times per game, a number that needs to increase for the team to be more successful.

In UNLV's biggest victory, 27-0 over Utah, Summers ran 29 times for 190 yards and two touchdowns. He had four 100-yard rushing games, but at other times he mysteriously was absent from the game plan.

"They had a lot of instability at quarterback last year," Steele said. "But Clayton returns with more experience, and they have an outstanding running back in Summers, who sort of reminds me of Jerome Bettis.

"They're actually much better than their 2-10 record. They fell apart a little in the second half of the season."

If the Rebels are to win four games or more, they must defeat Utah State as 121/2-point favorites in Saturday's opener at Sam Boyd Stadium. If not, the season quickly could unravel.

They will be heavy underdogs in the next two games, at Utah on Sept. 6 and at Arizona State on Sept. 13.

UNLV does play seven of its 12 games at home, where it faces Iowa State on Sept. 20 and UNR on Sept. 27. It's not unrealistic to think the Rebels could be 3-3 after their Oct. 4 game at Colorado State.

At the same time, who would be shocked by 1-5?

After a bye week, UNLV gets deep into the Mountain West schedule by playing Air Force, at Brigham Young, Texas Christian, New Mexico, Wyoming and at San Diego State.

The Hilton has posted early lines on three Rebels games -- they are a pick'em against Iowa State, 31/2-point underdogs to UNR and 21/2-point favorites over Wyoming.

Steele said he was encouraged by how competitive UNLV was last year in a 20-13 loss to Wisconsin, a 27-20 loss to UNR and a 24-14 loss to BYU.

"I think Colorado State and San Diego State are the bottom two teams in the conference," Steele said.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.