Index sees growth in population slowing

Population growth is slowing in Las Vegas as the cost of living here has risen substantially in the past few years, a UNLV economist said.

About 6,000 new residents are moving to Las Vegas every month, compared with 7,000 to 8,000 a month in 2005 and 2006.

Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, attributes the slowdown in population growth to a natural swing in business activity and to the escalation in housing costs.

"Compared to Wichita (Kan.) and Omaha (Neb.), it's not as enticing as it once was," Schwer said Thursday. "Keep in mind the economy is good in the rest of the nation except for Michigan."

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators pushed upward in July to 133.24, compared with 133.06 in June and 132.53 in July 2006. Eight of the 10 series of data contributed positively to the index, led by taxable sales at 0.16 percent and commercial building permit valuation at 0.09 percent.

The index, compiled by the center, is a six-month forecast from the month of the data, May, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjustment for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

The positive movement in the index overcomes a sharp decline in the residential market as measured by units permitted and permit valuation, Schwer said. Residential permits dropped 52.8 percent in May to 1,789 and residential permit valuation fell 50.7 percent to $217.5 million.

On the commercial side, building permits increased 6.2 percent to 120 and commercial permit valuation soared 322 percent to $379.5 million.

Construction and travel and tourism are large components of business activity in Las Vegas, Schwer said. Construction activity dropped primarily in residential, but nonresidential construction remains strong, he said.

A separate Clark County Construction Index from the center turned upward in January and continued to climb to 169.59 in May, up from 167.58 in April.

Construction employment, having peaked in June 2006 at 111,600 jobs, has declined to 109,500 jobs.

The downturn in the housing market and the resulting loss of 5,200 construction jobs statewide in the past year has dominated the economic picture, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation economist Jim Shabi said.

Nevada's economy has led the nation in annual job growth a dozen times over the past two decades and has usually been described in glowing terms, he said.

The state's employment growth and unemployment rate could now best be described as "average," Shabi said. Employment has increased 1.7 percent over the past 12 months, the lowest growth rate since September 2002 and barely above the 1.5 percent increase for the nation as a whole.