Proposition for you: Heads I win, tails you lose

Heads I win, tails you lose.

That’s essentially the surefire position bettors are in against offshore sports book BookMaker.eu heading into the Super Bowl LI coin toss.

“Heads” opened at minus-103 on the prop, “Player calling coin toss will call?” As the designated road team, the Patriots will call the toss in Sunday’s game. Bettors aware that New England has called heads on every toss the last two seasons quickly pounded the prop, which was then taken off the board for two days.

The prop was reposted Sunday and heads soared to minus-1300 (with tails at plus-750) Thursday, according to BookMaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley, who said there’s a $2,000 limit on the wager.

“We’re getting action on tails but wiseguys are laying the big number,” Cooley said.

That enticing prop isn’t posted in Las Vegas, but there are more than 400 others to bet in the gambling capital of the world. We like several player props and also have included two plays from handicapper Ted Sevransky (Sportsmemo.com, @teddy_covers).

Will Julio Jones (Falcons) score a touchdown? (No, plus-120 at Station Casinos)

Julio Jones total receiving yards (Under 99½, minus-115 at Station):

The sharps almost always bet ‘no’ and ‘under’ on props while the squares almost always bet ‘yes’ and ‘over’ while trying to cash popular longshot bets on a safety (7-1) and overtime (7-1) occurring.

“The wiseguys will bet on essentially every player listed not to score a touchdown,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “And they’ll bet it twice.”

As much as we’d love to be a wiseguy, we’re just a wise guy. But we are going to bet against one of the NFL’s most explosive receivers.

It’s become almost cliche to say that Patriots coach Bill Belichick always takes away his opponent’s top weapon and makes the other players beat him. But it’s a cliche because it’s true. We’re going all-in that Belichick will find a way to contain Jones after New England limited Steelers wideout Antonio Brown to 77 yards and no TDs in the AFC title game.

Devonta Freeman (Falcons) total receiving yards (Over 33½, minus-110 at Westgate):

Belichick’s defensive strategy should open up some space underneath for Freeman, who eclipsed that total in his last four games, including playoffs, and five of seven going back to the regular season.

Julian Edelman (Patriots) total receiving yards (Over 89½, minus-110 at Westgate)

Julian Edelman total receptions (Over 7½, minus-110 at Westgate):

New England receiver Chris Hogan — nicknamed “7-11” because he’s always open — had a career game against the Steelers, but Edelman remains Tom Brady’s go-to guy. He’s been targeted an average of 13 times in his last eight playoff games and has at least eight catches in seven of those contests, with seven in the other one. He also has at least 98 yards receiving in five of his last six postseason games.

Largest lead in the game by either team (Under 14½, plus-140 at South Point):

The Patriots’ six previous Super Bowls with Belichick and Brady have been decided by four points or fewer and 14 points was the largest lead by either team in any of them as New England led the Rams 17-3 en route to its 20-17 win in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Sevransky’s prop picks

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD? (No, minus-180 at Westgate):

Don’t expect many turnovers. The Falcons and Patriots tied for the league low with only 11 giveaways each this year. Brady and Matt Ryan aren’t making ‘pick-six’ type mistakes. Fumble return touchdowns are few and far between in the NFL, a true rarity. And the only special teams touchdown that either team scored all year was Dion Lewis’ kick return in the playoffs against the Texans. This prop is cheap, worthy of a wager up to minus-200.

Matt Bryant total field goals (Over 1½, minus-130 at Westgate):

The Falcons score points in bunches and are, by far, the highest-scoring offense in the NFL this season and the most productive offense on a yards-per-play basis. They’ll get their fair share of scoring chances here. But converting those chances into touchdowns won’t be easy against the elite red zone defense of New England, offering Bryant a prime chance to cash this bet.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.