Home-market rebound may not be so near

Hold off on those reports that the Las Vegas housing market has turned the corner.

The Altos Research 10-City Price Composite Index was down 0.4 percent in October and 0.9 percent for the last three months. The San Francisco-based research firm showed Las Vegas asking prices at $169,958 in October, a 2.4 percent drop from $174,183 in August.

That contrasts against recent data released by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors that showed the median price of a single-family home climbing to $139,100 in October, compared with $135,500 in August.

The largest monthly drop in asking prices, according to the Altos Research study, occurred in Salt Lake City, where prices fell 3.3 percent to $382,970 in October. Phoenix was second with a 2.1 percent decline to $311,050. Las Vegas prices were down 1.2 percent.

"The rate of decline has slowed in Las Vegas, but that market continues to show the largest decline during the downturn," Altos Research Chief Executive Offer Michael Simonsen said in his housing-market update.

In October 2007, the median asking price in Las Vegas was $354,347, plunging 52 percent to $169,958 this October.

Frank Nason of Residential Resources in Las Vegas said statistics are "kind of funny the way they're released." For example, Realtors statistics only include homes sold from the Multiple Listing Service, not all closings recorded by the county assessor's office.

He's showing a median price of $140,000 in October, up from $138,000 in September.

"I think they're bouncing along the bottom," Nason said. "Foreclosures have moved from lower-priced homes to all the higher-priced homes. The reason is people in higher-priced properties had more resources. They're running out. A lot of people are doing strategic defaults. Why become a debt slave?"

Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported the median existing-home price at $123,500 in September, down from $124,900 in July. Home Builders Research reported the September median price at $125,500, compared with $125,000 in July.

"Have we seen the bottom in prices as some of the pundits have recently predicted? No one knows since none of us who follow the market have crystal balls," Nason said. "Is the so-called 'shadow inventory' of foreclosed properties going to flood the market or will the financial institutions be able to manage a measured release of properties to prop up prices?"

Simonsen said the decline in the Altos Research price index would have been worse if not for historically low mortgage rates and the government's $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, which was recently extended.

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.