Panelist: Housing will drag North Las Vegas economy

North Las Vegas' economy could see some bright spots, but the valley's housing market may not experience a full rebound for nearly a generation, predicted a local observer at the city's Directions 2010 event Thursday.

A stabilization in housing prices, combined with minimal appreciation, would not fully restore most home values for almost two decades, said John Restrepo.

"The median price today is $139,000," he said. "If prices stabilized now, and appreciated at 5 percent at year, it would take 17 years to get to the $300,000 mark."

The remarks made by the Restrepo Consulting principal were met with gasps from some audience members at Texas Station. Restrepo did not foresee a return to anything close to the 30 percent-plus annual appreciation the valley experienced in 2004 and 2005.

One benefit to his scenario: Out-of-state companies might be attracted to the lower housing costs, Restrepo said.

North Las Vegas could also see improvement.

Foreclosures and unemployment in North Las Vegas have grabbed the headlines, but the city's industrial strength could help lift it out of the recession.

North Las Vegas has the highest potential locally for industrial growth and the high-paying jobs that manufacturing creates, Restrepo said after the event.

"North Las Vegas has relatively low costs, and available commercial space, and access to the (Union Pacific) rail line," he said.

But before things get much better, the consultant predicted much of the same.

"There is no magic bullet," Restrepo said. "I think it will be flat for a few years and will struggle with the rest of the valley."

Directions 2010 drew about 200 registered attendees, according to the North Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce. The chamber sponsored the event along with the Las Vegas Business Press.

Among the other speakers were Jeffrey Geihs, the vice president of the Public Education Foundation; and a Zappos.com's human resources official, Jamie Naughton.

The final speaker was Mark Mix, president of the Virginia-based National Right to Work Committee. He warned of the costs of passing the union-backed Employee Free Choice Act, which is also referred to as "card check." "Card check" would let unions organize in companies without having to hold an election.

"If they get you to sign a three-by-five card, and 51 percent sign it, you are in a union without a secret ballot," Mix said.

Michael Varney, the president of the North Las Vegas Chamber, said more union growth in the public sector could hurt the local economy.

"Payroll is major component to (local government's) expenses," he said, "and card check is a blatant power grab."

Contact reporter Valerie Miller at
vmiller@lvbusinesspress.com or 702-387-5286.