Pondering ‘Surf’ as ‘Phantom’ fades out

"Oh, we can do angel rides," I wrote back in 2006, talking about how easy it was then for Vegas to supersize productions such as "Phantom of the Opera."

Seeing The Venetian show again last week on its sixth anniversary, I had to smile remembering my mild disappointment that the producers had scaled back on even more grandiose plans, such as having real running water flow through the Phantom's underground lair.

Now you watch the sumptuous $35 million production (more than $40 million to build the theater) and wonder if we'll ever see the likes of it again after "Phantom" closes Sept. 2.

I recalled, too, that the same week "Phantom" opened, we were in the midst of a crosstown move, enabled by the nice folks at Countrywide Financial.

Turns out the "Phantom" producers, Countrywide and I all shared the same irrational exuberance. "Phantom" closes with the dubious honor of being the only production of Andrew Lloyd Webber's megahit to actually lose money, about $22 million.

It doesn't matter if the show operates in the black now. The "mortgage" was upside down from the get-go, thanks to lopsided licensing and tenant agreements, and a business plan originally based on 10 shows per week.

When the economy went south and mass discounting began on the Strip, "Phantom" was trapped in debt like so many suburban homeowners.

But there's a new irony in play. The subdued sixth anniversary celebration for "Phantom" - which consisted of a short speech by star Anthony Crivello - fell the same week as a rare new investment debuted on the Strip: "Surf the Musical."

Good news, you say? I hope so. We'll find out by summer's end whether a scaled-down version of the same irrational exuberance is in play. By industry estimates, "Surf" costs only about a third of "Phantom." But $10 million-plus is a big "only" in today's economy.

Last week's thrice-postponed opening put the production at Planet Hollywood Resort at a full month with no revenue to offset weekly expenses estimated at more than $150,000 for 28 union actors, an A-list creative team and whatever it cost to license the entire Beach Boys catalog.

"Surf" costs more than twice as much to run each week as modest, midpriced efforts such as "Legends in Concert" or "Vegas the Show," which are more in the ballpark of $35,000 to $75,000. When people ask why Cirque du Soleil owns the town - why there's such a big gap between them and everyone else - this operating capital is your answer.

If it works, "Surf" will surely be good for the Strip. If it doesn't? You could say the lessons of 2006 were too quickly forgotten.

Contact reporter Mike Weatherford at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0288.