Lake Powell’s high water level is promising. But will it last?

Tracking every move of the Colorado River’s biggest reservoirs has become a routine for water managers across the West.

As runoff season comes to a close, the latest hopeful sign comes from Lake Powell, the country’s second-biggest reservoir. Its water level this week was the highest it has been in more than three years — 3,586 feet.

It’s a mark of two good snowpack years in a row and successful conservation efforts. That’s a positive change after the reservoir hit an all-time low in April 2022, especially in light of news that Glen Canyon Dam’s lower tubes could be damaged.

Some of this success can be attributed to the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan, where Lower Basin states — Nevada, California and Arizona — voluntarily took cuts in their river water and increased conservation, said John Entsminger, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority.

“I think it shows what’s possible and what’s necessary for our future,” Entsminger told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Combined storage for Lake Mead and Lake Powell is at 37 percent of total capacity as of this week, which hasn’t been the case since April 2021, according to a blog post from Utah State University professor Jack Schmidt.

But in the larger context of what were considered average conditions between 2000 and 2020, the Colorado River Basin isn’t where it needs to be to mitigate Western drought that’s only intensified over the past two decades. Meteorologists are discussing a potential shift to drier, hotter La Niña conditions as soon as August, which makes little reservoir storage improvements that much more fickle.

From a water management perspective, though, meteorology doesn’t always correspond with reality, he said.

“Year to year, predictions have seemed to work best in hindsight,” Entsminger said. “We can’t sit around and hope that we get another good year. We have to plan for significant desertification by mid-century.”

No news on the future of river conservation

The small victory is underscored by a bitter battle between two coalitions of northern and southern states to update Colorado River allocations by 2026, when 2007 rules will expire.

With the potential for a shakeup in Bureau of Reclamation leadership after the 2024 election, state negotiators have portrayed the rush to come to a consensus as urgent. A water authority spokesman said negotiators have met twice in July, with a July 17 meeting that also included Reclamation officials.

The glaring difference between the proposals from the two groups of negotiators centers around which states should have to take cuts past what’s known as the “structural deficit,” or the 1.5 million acre-feet of water lost every year to evaporation and transport. That’s roughly 488 billion gallons.

Both proposals agree that Lower Basin states should take on those conservation efforts for the initial losses. The Upper Basin — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — feels the responsibility of any mandatory conservation past that should fall to the Lower Basin alone.

“Depending on hydrology, it may be an all-hands-on-deck situation,” said Entsminger, Nevada’s chief river negotiator.

Elizabeth Koebele, a University of Nevada, Reno hydrology professor who studies Colorado River governance, said Lake Powell’s success is tied to that of Lake Mead. It’s a symbiotic relationship; if Lake Mead levels are lower, more releases become necessary from Lake Powell, she said.

Nevada, which is allowed the lowest allocation of river water by far, still leads the pack in water conservation, Koebele said.

Koebele, on sabbatical this fall, is about to begin a monthslong trip through the Colorado River states to meet with negotiators about how to move discussions forward. She’s been curious about discussions behind closed doors and said she looks forward to Reclamation’s analysis of the two proposals, which likely will come in sometime in the next few months.

“It’s probably going to be more a debate about how much the Upper Basin gives,” she said. “I can’t really imagine a world where the Upper Basin gives nothing.”

Contact Alan at ahalaly@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlanHalaly on X.