Despite talk of Palin initiating momentum, skepticism remains

My first knee-jerk reaction upon hearing Arizona Sen. John McCain had selected Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate Friday: McCain just lost the election. I may be 100 percent wrong. But that was my first thought. Really.

At that moment, all I knew about her was from a profile I read about her in Newsweek in October, which might be more than most folks outside of Alaska knew about her.

In her televised speech from Dayton, Ohio, she came across as a bright, honest woman who reminded me of Marian the Librarian in "The Music Man." I almost thought she could serenade McCain with "Till There Was You." (And no, I am not suggesting she fell for a snake oil salesman.)

Palin has a lot of convincing to do and less than 10 weeks to persuade voters she can step to the plate if McCain cannot serve.

Sig Rogich, Nevada's leading Republican consultant, who speaks with McCain or his campaign once a week and is heavily involved with McCain's fundraising and media strategy, explained why I was wrong in my initial reactions.

"I'm confident she has all the capabilities of being the next president," Rogich said, vouching for Palin.

Rogich has only met her in passing, and his own first pick would have been Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, whose pro-choice position would have balanced the ticket. Rogich thought Palin was a "terrific surprise" as a matter of campaign strategy and because of her compelling story as hockey mom turned governor.

"People are looking for an honest broker," Rogich said, calling Palin "strikingly intelligent and a hard-hitting woman."

He shared one story about how Palin, 44, went into labor a month before her due date in April, while she was in Texas for the Republican Governors Association convention. She wanted her child to be born in Alaska, so she jumped on a plane so the baby would be born there.

"That says something about her grit," Rogich said. Named "Trig," this is the baby she and her husband chose not to abort despite knowing he had Down syndrome.

(Others will question whether she could have endangered that child by flying, but because she's had five children, maybe she knows her own body.)

To win, McCain needs to make some bold moves, the GOP strategist said, and choosing Palin is bold.

"She's inspirational. She's going to kick-start this campaign. She's going to create enormous enthusiasm." She's unique and unknown and will dominate the news, he said. "If we're lucky enough, we'll control the next two weeks of news, and that creates momentum."

For months, after it became clear Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would be the Democratic nominee and McCain the Republican, undecided voters told me again and again they wanted to see who each selected as his running mate and only then would they decide.

With McCain's age -- 72 -- and Obama's race, it was a commonplace thought that whoever is elected might not finish the term. Age and assassination were uppermost in people's concerns that the choice of vice president was more important than ever.

I don't ever remember the VP being the final decider. A VP candidate might swing some votes, but deciding the race? No way.

When Obama selected Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, nobody suggested he wouldn't be capable of being president. Biden could handle the job, even if you didn't like how he handled the job.

McCain picked someone compelling, but her experience is as a city council member, two years of experience as a mayor of a town with 9,000 people and two years as governor of a small state.

(Can't you see Hillary Clinton rolling her eyes at anyone comparing her experience with Palin's or the thought any of her supporters might switch their allegiance to Palin, a conservative pro-life candidate, because she is a woman?)

Rogich said that if 10 percent more of the independent, undecided women voters who are proud to have a woman on the GOP ticket vote Republican, that's enough to make him feel comfortable about victory. But it's clear he's counting on pulling in the independent women, not Clinton crossovers.

Ten weeks until voters decide if my gut reaction was correct or if Rogich has it pegged. Ten long weeks.

Jane Ann Morrison's column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0275.