Holiday COVID surge expected in Nevada, but how big will it be?

Key COVID-19 metrics for Clark County and Nevada are expected to rise as the holiday season progresses, but it remains unclear how the arrival of the omicron variant could alter the “impact and magnitude” of the increase, state officials said Thursday.

“We do anticipate seeing some increases in general COVID-19 cases approximately two weeks after those holiday seasons and holiday gatherings, whether that’s omicron, delta, whatever,” state epidemiologist Melissa Peek-Bullock said at a news briefing. “That’s sort of a natural rise in cases.”

The unknown heading into the end-of-year holidays is whether the arrival in the state of the more-contagious omicron variant could turn what might have been a small surge into a major one.

Peek-Bullock and other officials on the videoconference stressed that the state and county are in a better position than they were at this time last year, when new cases were five times higher and the first doses of COVID-19 vaccine were just becoming available.

They remain hopeful that having more than half of the state’s eligible population of 5 and older fully vaccinated will prevent the levels seen last winter, though they acknowledged that the behavior of omicron will have a say in the outcome.

They also noted early studies indicate that booster shots provide more substantial protection against the mutant than the original one- or two-shot regimen. They said they will continue to press the message that the add-on shots provide an added level of safety against all forms of COVID-19.

“With the rapid spread globally of omicron, we are certainly looking at any and all ways we can to boost immunity,” said Dr. Ellie Graeden of Talus Analytics, a state consultant. “That third dose for adults of the primary two-dose series is definitely showing significant increase in efficacy. So that’s terrific news.”

New details on Clark County case

Officials also released a bit more information on the Clark County woman who on Tuesday was identified as the first case of omicron in Nevada.

Dr. Cassius Lockett, director of disease surveillance and control for the Southern Nevada Health District, who joined the state call, said the woman, who is in her 20s, recently traveled out of the country. He did not specify her destination but said it was “within the boundaries of North America.”

The woman, who had received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine but not a booster shot, has not been hospitalized and is isolating, he said.

Lockett also indicated that additional omicron cases are expected to be found in the state soon, including some who may have been exposed to the woman before she was diagnosed.

“We are in the midst right now of trying to do more robust contact and case investigation, and we suspect strongly there will be more cases,” he said.

Earlier Thursday, the health district reported 662 new coronavirus cases and 12 deaths in Clark County during the preceding day.

The updated figures pushed totals in the county to 351,903 cases and 6,358 deaths.

New cases were well above the two-week moving average of 379 per day, which increased by four from 375 on Wednesday, according to state data. The two-week moving average of daily fatalities in the county held steady at five per day.

The number of people hospitalized with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in the county decreased by 13, to 579, the state data showed.

The county’s 14-day test positivity rate, which tracks the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 who are found to be infected, held steady at 7.8 percent. The rate has risen 2 percentage points from its recent low of 5.8 percent in early November.

Metrics rise since early November

All four key COVID-19 metrics in the county had been falling steadily since mid- to late August before starting to slowly climb at the beginning of November.

Levels of the disease in the county remain well below those seen during the summer surge, but the recent increases have raised concerns that another spike of the disease caused by the coronavirus may be in its early stages.

Data guide: COVID-19’s impact on Nevada

The state, meanwhile, reported 818 new COVID-19 cases and 19 deaths during the preceding day.

Updated figures posted by the state Department of Health and Human Services raised Nevada’s totals to 468,023 cases and 8,263 deaths.

Nevada’s 14-day moving average of new cases increased to 490 per day from 489 on Wednesday. The two-week average for fatalities dropped by one to seven per day.

State and county health agencies often redistribute daily data after it is reported to better reflect the date of death or onset of symptoms, which is why the moving-average trend lines frequently differ from daily reports and are considered better indicators of the direction of the outbreak.

Of the state’s other closely watched metrics, the state’s two-week test positivity rate was unchanged from the previous day at 7.5 percent, while the number of people in Nevada hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases dropped to 679, 23 fewer than on Wednesday.

Clark County data is included in the statewide totals.

As of Thursday’s report, state data show that 53.67 percent of eligible Nevadans 5 and older had been fully vaccinated, compared with 52.95 percent in Clark County.

Contact Jonah Dylan at jdylan@reviewjournal.com. Follow @TheJonahDylan on Twitter.