Polls show GOP running strong in key state Senate races

Republicans have a slight advantage or are statistically tied with Democratic opponents in two key Senate races that could determine whether the GOP retakes control of Nevada’s upper house, according to several new polls.

If the Nov. 4 election were held today, Republican Patricia Farley would defeat Assemblywoman Marilyn Dondero Loop, D-Las Vegas, 43 percent to 36 percent, according to a Republican pollster, The Tarrance Group. The rest were undecided.

However, a Democratic polling outfit, Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, surveyed the same race for Senate District 8 and found a statistical tie with Farley edging Dondero Loop 46 percent to 44 percent. Another 10 percent was undecided. (The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.)

Senate District 8 is an open seat because the current office holder, Barbara Cegavske, is running for secretary of state.

Another key contest is in Senate District 9, where freshman state Sen. Justin Jones, D-Las Vegas, is defending his seat against Republican Becky Harris. Both the Republican and Democratic pollsters show the contest a statistical tie, although the Democrats have a registered voter advantage of about 3,000 people over Republicans in the district.

The Democratic pollster, Momentum Analysis, showed Jones edging Harris, 46 percent to 44 percent, a virtual tie. (The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.)

The Republican survey also showed the SD9 race as a virtual tie, but with Harris edging out Jones 45 percent to 42 percent. (The margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.)

What all this means is the two Senate seats are both jump shots and either party could win.

Democrats now control the state Senate with a slim 11-10 advantage. Republicans must flip SD9 and hold on to SD8 and SD20, another competitive district, to reclaim majority control, which the GOP lost in 2008.

No poll data were released about SD20, now held by Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson, R-Las Vegas. His challenger is Teresa Lowry, a prosecutor in the Clark County district attorney’s office.

A source with knowledge of the GOP poll, however, said the survey showed Roberson leading by double-digits over Lowry.

The Tarrance Group surveyed 301 likely registered voters in SD8 from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24.

Tarrance also surveyed 376 likely registered voters in SD9 from Sept. 23 to Sept. 25.

Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner polled 400 likely voters in SD8 from Sept. 25 to Sept. 28.

Momentum Analysis polled 400 likely voters in SD9 on behalf of Friends for Justin Jones from Oct. 2 to Oct. 5.

Contact Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Find her on Twitter: @lmyerslvrj.