NCAA Tournament: East Region breakdown

EAST REGION

1. Michigan (20-4)

Two weeks ago, the Wolverines looked like a potential champion. Three losses in five games and a potentially serious injury to Isaiah Livers have Michigan facing more questions than answers going into the tournament. Second-year coach Juwan Howard will have to stop the bleeding if this team is to reach expectations.

2. Alabama (24-6)

Don’t be fooled by all of the gaudy point totals. Sure, Nate Oats likes his teams to run up and down the floor, but the secret to the Crimson Tide’s success is their defense. They are second in the nation in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency.

3. Texas (19-7)

Shaka Smart was on the hot seat last offseason, and his team slumped this season when he missed time because of COVID-19. Yet here are the Longhorns with a good seed after winning the Big 12 Tournament for the first time.

4. Florida State (16-6)

Leonard Hamilton’s team profiles as one with the potential to make a deep run. They are solid on both ends of the floor. Their weaknesses could prove fatal in this tournament, however. Florida State turns the ball over too much and allows way too many offensive rebounds.

5. Colorado (22-8)

Another team that looks like a true contender on paper. The Buffaloes are in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, are one of the best free-throw shooting teams college basketball has ever seen and have a whole lot of experience in their lineup. All of those factors don’t always seem to show up when Tad Boyle’s team actually takes the floor, though.

6. BYU (20-6)

The Cougars can be so explosive on the offensive end. Just ask Gonzaga. BYU led the undefeated Bulldogs until late in the West Coast Conference championship game. Alex Barcello is one of the best shooters in the country, and Matt Haarms gives them a legit post presence. BYU’s downfall is often its turnover margin.

7. Connecticut (15-7)

The Huskies do a good job of crashing the offensive glass. That’s a good thing because they miss way too many shots. Their only chance is to have a healthy James Bouknight, but they are often too reliant on him to make plays.

8. LSU (18-9)

The Tigers, who finished eighth in the nation in scoring, are a deep team that often overwhelms opponents with offense and depth. They just don’t play consistent enough defense to win six straight games over a nearly three-week span.

9. St. Bonaventure (16-4)

The Bonnies quietly put together a good season and could be an under-the-radar choice to make a Cinderella run. Their deliberate pace will drive opponents crazy. St. Bonaventure doesn’t have much depth and often struggles to box out. It also needs to stay ahead or keep games close because it’s not built to rally.

10. Maryland (16-13)

Mark Turgeon’s team will make opponents work for every shot and do a good job limiting second chances despite a lack of size. The Terrapins just don’t have enough offense to put together a deep run.

11. Michigan State (15-12)

Was there ever a doubt Tom Izzo would find a way to sneak his team into the field? Now that the Spartans are here, they could be dangerous if they get by UCLA in the play-in game. Michigan State is deep and sound defensively. Their scoring comes and goes and is really their biggest question mark game to game.

11. UCLA (17-9)

This doesn’t feel like a typical Mick Cronin team as they are better on offense than defense. The Bruins shoot the ball fairly well from 3-point range but limped across the finish line. They have lost their last four games, including an overtime defeat to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament.

12. Georgetown (13-12)

Where did that run in the Big East Tournament come from? The Hoyas were essentially written off after starting the year 3-7 but find themselves in the tournament on the strength of their 3-point shooting and physical defense. Georgetown would still benefit from cutting down on turnovers and forcing a few more by their opponents.

13. UNC Greensboro (21-8)

The Spartans rely almost exclusively on their ability to pressure opponents with a wave of defenders. They rank near the top of just about every defensive category except rebounding, which has been a major concern. Offensively, they can be a nightmare at times.

14. Abilene Christian (23-4)

The Wildcats are another grinding defensive squad. Abilene Christian, which will play in its second consecutive NCAA Tournament, is the only team in the nation forcing 20 turnovers per game. While they don’t have a whole lot of size, they do possess a legitimate 7-footer in senior Kolton Kohl.

15. Iona (12-5)

Of course Rick Pitino is back in the tournament. He’s just the third coach in history to lead five schools into the field. It’s not like he took over a moribund program, though. Iona has made five appearances in the past six tournaments. The Gaels fought through a 51-day COVID-19 pause and overcame a troubling turnover rate to reach this point.

16. Mount St. Mary’s (12-10)

The Mountaineers struggle offensively, and their best player opted out just a few games into the season. Still, Dan Engelstad found a way to make his first NCAA Tournament with a stingy defense. The Northeast Conference Tournament had just four entrants.

16. Texas Southern (16-8)

The Tigers, led by former LSU coach Johnny Jones, advanced with a roster full of transfers from high-major and mid-major programs. Texas Southern plays at high pace and scores a lot of points, though it’s not always pretty or efficient. The pace matchup with Mount St. Mary’s should be fun to watch.

Four players to watch

Herbert Jones, Alabama: The 6-foot-8 forward can guard any position on the floor and does it better than almost anyone in the nation. He’s also a key contributor on the offensive end and the most important player for the Crimson Tide.

James Bouknight, Connecticut: He’s the best player in the Big East and a likely lottery pick when he is healthy. That hasn’t happened enough during his time at UConn. If he stays healthy for three weeks, the Huskies can beat almost anyone. If not, it will be a short stay in Indianapolis.

Isaiah Miller, UNC Greensboro: The exciting point guard has been the Southern Conference player of the year the past two seasons and has three straight defensive player of the year awards in the league. His ability to handle the Florida State press could decide that first-round matchup.

Cameron Thomas, LSU: Not only did Thomas win newcomer of the year in what in all likelihood will be his only season in Baton Rouge, but the projected lottery pick was the only unanimous first-team all-conference selection in the SEC after scoring nearly 23 points per game.

Three best potential matchups

Michigan vs. Alabama, Elite 8: The only two teams in this region among the top 14 in the Pomeroy ratings could meet with a Final Four berth on the line. Crimson Tide coach Nate Oats was teaching and coaching high school basketball in Michigan until 2013.

Alabama vs. LSU, Elite 8: Somebody forgot to tell these two programs they are football schools. A potential matchup between these rivals for a berth in the Final Four would be compelling enough even without the carryover from a shoving match that took place between the coaching staffs Sunday at the SEC title game.

Maryland vs. Georgetown, Elite 8: It would take a whole lot of upsets to make this happen, but it would be worth it to see the rivalry renewed. The teams rarely play despite less than 20 miles separating the campuses of these two traditional basketball powers.

Two bracket busters

Michigan State: It has been an incredibly inconsistent season for the Spartans, but they do have wins over No. 1 seeds Michigan and Illinois. Tom Izzo is known for his March coaching jobs, and a deep run would rank among his best work.

Connecticut: The Huskies are capable of putting a scare into anyone if Bouknight is healthy. They were a trendy pick to make a splash, though a loss in the Big East semifinals has diminished some of the expectations. That’s probably a good thing.

One left standing

Alabama: This would have ordinarily been a favorable draw for Michigan. A healthy Wolverines team probably breezes to the Final Four. That’s not the case. Isaiah Livers is incredibly valuable, Even if he’s somehow able to play, he’ll likely belimited. That leaves the door open.

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on Twitter.