NCAA Tournament: South Region breakdown
SOUTH REGION
1. Baylor (22-2)
The Bears were neck-and-neck with Gonzaga for the unofficial title of best team in the country for much of the season only to see their stock drop after a three-week COVID-19 pause. Baylor struggled upon its return before righting the ship with three straight wins over ranked opponents to close the year. A Big 12 semifinal loss to Oklahoma State should get their attention again.
2. Ohio State (21-8)
The Buckeyes appeared to be in a free fall late in the season despite putting together one of the most impressive resumes in the country, racking up 12 Quad 1 and 2 victories. Ohio State seemed to alleviate any concerns about where it stands with a run through the Big Ten tournament, culminating in an overtime loss to Illinois in the title game.
3. Arkansas (22-6)
Each of its six losses came to tournament teams, including an SEC semifinal loss to LSU that ended a nine-game winning streak. Eric Musselman has a deep team that can score, led by freshman Moses Moody. This is the highest seed for a Razorbacks team since 1995.
4. Purdue (18-8)
As usual, Matt Painter’s team has size and can defend. Any opponent better be prepared to defend the inside. Star forward Trevion Williams bullies people in the paint, and 7-foot-4 freshman Zach Edey comes off the bench to wear teams out.
5. Villanova (16-6)
The Wildcats looked like legitimate contenders just a few weeks ago. They have been a completely different unit since losing point guard Collin Gillespie to a season-ending knee injury. Villanova is 0-2 since he went down, though not all hope is lost. There is still plenty of talent. Jay Wright just needs to find someone else to steer the ship.
6. Texas Tech (17-10)
Former UNLV coach Chris Beard once again has a team capable of making a run. The roster is almost entirely new from their 2019 run to the national championship game. But the formula is the same. The Red Raiders play suffocating defense and make opponents work for every point.
7. Florida (14-9)
The season nearly turned tragic when star Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the floor and was diagnosed with a heart condition. It’s rather remarkable the Gators were still able to earn a bid despite losing Johnson, the SEC preseason player of the year. Florida still has plenty of firepower on offense but won’t go far without figuring out how to defend at least a little bit.
8. North Carolina (18-10)
The Tar Heels have a massive front line that loves to get out and finish in transition. While they do have a tendency to get sloppy, it’s a trade-off they will make to get teams to run with them. Roy Williams would like to have someone get hot from the perimeter, where his team has been too inconsistent this season.
9. Wisconsin (17-12)
The Badgers are a difficult team to figure out. They have 12 losses but are ranked in the top 10 of the Pomeroy ratings. It’s a typical Wisconsin team as Greg Gard has a senior-laden team that defends and rarely turns the ball over but can’t shoot.
10. Virginia Tech (15-6)
The Hokies have been able to play just three times since Feb. 6, losing two of them. They hoped to find a rhythm in the ACC Tournament but got bounced in the first round by North Carolina. It’s a team that has been ranked for much of the season despite two long pauses.
11. Utah State (20-8)
Craig Smith would have been making his third NCAA Tournament appearance in three years had the event actually been played last year. He doesn’t have the same kind of offensive firepower he has had in the past two seasons, when Sam Merrill could basically get him a bucket whenever it was needed. But this team is well-schooled on offense and can be elite defensively.
12. Winthrop (23-1)
Pat Kelsey’s team has 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game and scoring between 3.8 and 12.2 points per game. The Eagles are a terrific rebounding team that has fallen in love with the 3-pointer on offense though they’re not particularly consistent at making it. Winthrop played just four games outside the league, with a neutral court win over UNC Greensboro the only real game of note.
13. North Texas (17-9)
Coach Grant McCasland has used a fairly simple formula to get this program back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010: The Mean Green play excellent defense and make a whole lot of 3-pointers. McCasland, a former Baylor assistant, also has one of the most experienced starting lineups in the nation.
14. Colgate (14-1)
Only Gonzaga scores more points than the Raiders, who aren’t afraid to run with anyone. There is definitely some question about how good this offense — and team — really is this season. Colgate played only a conference schedule and dominated the Patriot League. The loss was in the second game of the season to Army.
15. Oral Roberts (16-10)
The Golden Eagles lead the nation in made 3-pointers, knocking down more than 11 per game. Oral Roberts is also proficient at the free-throw line, converting better than 82 percent. The Golden Eagles, who make their first appearance since 2008, don’t play a whole lot of defense.
16. Hartford (15-8)
The Hawks, who moved up to Division 1 in 1985, finally make their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament. It’s not likely to last long. John Gallagher’s team doesn’t allow a whole lot of points, but that’s almost entirely a product of playing at one of the slowest paces in the country.
Four players to watch
Duane Washington Jr., Ohio State: Washington came to life for a Buckeyes team that needed a spark, setting a tournament record for most points by a single player in one season. He also broke the championship game record with 32 points in Sunday’s overtime loss to Illinois. If he can carry the momentum over into the NCAA Tournament, the Buckeyes could be dangerous.
Mac McClung, Texas Tech: The Georgetown transfer was unanimously named Big 12 newcomer of the year after averaging 16.1 points and 2.3 assists per game for Beard’s Red Raiders. He has expanded his game beyond the highlight-reel dunks and crossovers he produced early in his college career and plays with an edge.
Neemias Queta, Utah State: He has always been a game-changing NBA prospect on the defensive end but has added some new tools in his offensive post game and expanded his jumper out to about 15 feet. But the defense hasn’t gone anywhere, as evidenced by his nine blocked shots in a Mountain West semifinal win over Colorado State.
Max Abmas, Oral Roberts: He led the nation in scoring by averaging more than 24 points per game and is the only player in the nation to score at least 40 points in two games this season. The 6-foot-1 point guard has tried to model his game after idols Damian Lillard and Steph Curry.
Three best potential matchups
Baylor vs. Villanova, Sweet 16: For several months, it looked like both of these teams could be headed for No. 1 seeds. The Bears still got theirs despite the inconsistency after the pause. The Wildcats faltered without Gillespie but still have some pieces, and Jay Wright knows what he is doing in March.
Texas Tech vs. Purdue, Elite 8: Beard burst on the scene on a national level in 2016 when he led Arkansas-Little Rock to a thrilling comeback win over Purdue in double overtime in a first-round tournament game. Beard led Texas Tech to a Sweet 16 win over the Boilermakers two years later. Matt Painter could get a shot at redemption with even more on the line.
Baylor vs. Texas Tech, Elite 8: Shield your eyes from this Big 12 rivalry rematch, UNLV fans. These teams meeting would mean either Beard or UNLV transfer Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua would be assured of a spot in the Final Four.
Two bracket busters
Wisconsin: The 12 losses look ugly on the Badgers’ resume, but the computers tell a different story. They have some good wins and have played elite competition, so they should be tournament-ready. This is the kind of team that is dangerous in March and is probably under-seeded.
Villanova: It may be cheating a bit to pick a five seed in this category, but national pundits have already made Winthrop one of the trendiest upset picks going. The Wildcats are an elite program and aren’t just going to roll over. Even without Gillespie, they are capable of making a run.
One left standing
Baylor: There are some dangerous teams in this bracket, and the Bears have looked quite vulnerable since returning from the pause. That could help motivate them to start playing like they were early in the season. That would be bad news for the rest of the region.
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on Twitter.
