Preseason bracket picks come in better than 50 percent

There’s no question the NCAA Tournament selection committee members have a thankless and difficult job as they huddle in a conference room and try to decide not only which 68 teams are most deserving of inclusion in the field, but in what order.

Imagine if they had to make those decisions before the season had even begun and then were singled out individually for just how wrong they were about so many of the teams.

Such is life for a certain Review-Journal reporter.

Below is the projected field from before the season. There were some hits, like all four No. 1 seeds being included in the preseason top seven.

But there were far more misses. Where are Florida State, Notre Dame and Minnesota?

In all, 42 of the 68 teams were correct. That number includes several small-conference tournament champions, which prove to be the toughest bids to prognosticate.

Including Indiana, North Carolina State and Connecticut were among the most egregious errors.

Perhaps the allure of such highly touted recruits distracted from the glaring weaknesses those teams contained.

Picking Georgetown and Oklahoma were bad, though. Really bad.

Not even correctly calling the winners in the SWAC, Big Sky, Atlantic Sun, Big South and Colonial can make up for that.

One last thought: The angriest fan base about their exclusion before the season was Washington. How can the team with the projected top pick in the NBA Draft possibly be left out of the field?

Still feel pretty good about that one.

Here is our preseason field of 68 with postseason analysis of what went right or wrong:

1. Duke (Didn’t play like it for much of the year, but coming around now)

2. Oregon (Injuries kept the Ducks from an even better record)

3. Wisconsin (Late-season fade dropped them way down the seed list)

4. Villanova (National champs right back in position to repeat)

5. Kansas (Jayhawks won another Big 12 title and earned a top seed)

6. North Carolina (A top seed and one of the favorites to win it all)

7. Gonzaga (Had them higher than most before the year, and it turns out it wasn’t high enough)

8. Kentucky (Had them slotted on the two line, right where they finished)

9. Virginia (Lack of offense kept them from reaching expectations)

10. Louisville (Underestimated just how good Pitino is when personnel fits his style)

11. Xavier (Injuries and off-court issues really hurt, but they are a dangerous team in the tournament)

12. Michigan State (Took some Tom Izzo magic just to get them in the tournament)

13. Cincinnati (After flirting with UNLV, Mick Cronin had an outstanding season with the Bearcats)

14. Indiana (Yikes. The Hoosiers went from No. 3 in the nation to a No. 3 seed — in the NIT)

15. Saint Mary’s (Their schedule wasn’t good enough to get them this high, but the Gaels had a great year)

16. Butler (Was higher on them than most analysts and was proven correct)

17. Rhode Island (Finally living up to this type of potential, but the Rams had to sneak into the tournament)

18. Purdue (Earned a No. 4 seed despite inconsistent play at times)

19. Florida (Mike White’s team slightly exceeded our expectations)

20. West Virginia (Pretty close to where they finished after a solid season in the tough Big 12)

21. Connecticut (Another big whiff. Prized recruiting class just wasn’t ready)

22. Arizona (Alonzo Trier’s status was in doubt at the time. One of the best teams in the nation when he’s playing)

23. Syracuse (Jim Boeheim’s team showed flashes, just not enough to overcome several bad losses)

24. Ohio State (Still not sure what happened to a program with several key returners and a veteran coach)

25. UCLA (The Bruins were far better than this, particularly on the offensive end. Freshmen developed quickly)

26. Clemson (Lot of transfers and never really jelled. At least they get to host an NIT game)

27. Miami (Suffered some losses in the ACC grind, but ended up not too far from this line)

28. Baylor (Probably underestimated Manu Lecomte’s immediate impact)

29. Iowa State (Steve Prohm is a great coach and made his mark on the program faster than expected)

30. Creighton (Exceeded this spot and likely would have finished even higher had Maurice Watson stayed healthy)

31. VCU (Will Wade just has this program chugging right along)

32. Dayton (Farily close to where the Flyers landed as a No. 7 seed)

33. Virginia Tech (Another decent pick here as the Hokies are right in the middle of the field)

34. Texas A&M (Terrible call. Aggies were never in the picture)

35. Maryland (There was no way Melo Trimble was going to be denied another tournament appearance)

36. Texas (Maybe Shaka Smart isn’t the miracle worker we thought. He’ll have them back in next year, though)

37. San Diego State (Two Mountain West teams in the field? Really?)

38. Arkansas (Another team picked right in the middle of the field that ended up right in that spot when all was said and done)

39. Oklahoma (What a fall for Lon Kruger’s young crew after a Final Four appearance last season)

40. Seton Hall (Matched up in an 8-9 game with Arkansas, which was picked just a few spots away from the very beginning)

41. North Carolina State (Not only did they not make the field, but their coach got fired)

42. Georgetown (It’s tough not to laugh thinking back to this pick)

43. Southern Methodist (The Mustangs proved to be much better than this with no true point guard or post presence and will be a tough out)

44. Texas Tech (Really thought Chris Beard would work his magic once again)

45. Michigan (The Wolverines surged up the seed list with a great run in the Big Ten tourament)

46. Ohio (The Bobcats finished second in the MAC, despite losing the returning conference player of the year midway through the season)

47. UNR (The Mountain West’s lone representative was the best team in the regular season and ran through the tournament)

48. UNC Wilmington (The Seahawks used their trademark helter-skelter style on both ends of the floor to capture the Colonial Athletic Association’s regular-season and tournament titles)

49. Wichita State (The Shockers far outperformed this prediction, though you wouldn’t know it from the committee’s final bracket)

50. Princeton (The class of the Ivy League went unbeaten in the regular conference season and then won the conference’s first postseason tournament)

51. Monmouth (Once again won the MAAC regular season before faltering in the conference tournament)

52. North Dakota State (Finished second in the regular season and lost early in the league tournament)

53. Long Beach State (The 49ers once again fell victim to a brutal nonconference schedule and never fully recovered)

54. Alabama-Birmingham (Proved to be nothing more than a middling team in Conference USA)

55. Texas-Arlington (Class of the Sun Belt even won a game at Saint Mary’s only to get blown out in tournament semifinals)

56. Valparaiso (Siginficant injuries, including one to star Alec Peters, cost them a chance at a bid)

57. Florida Gulf Coast (The class of the Atlantic Sun won both the regular season and tournament titles)

58. Chattanooga (Locker room issues appeared to be behind the collapse of the Mocs)

59. North Dakota (Fighting Hawks won both the regular season and tournament titles in the Big Sky)

60. Belmont (Once again won the league before a stunning upset loss in the tournament)

61. New Hampshire (Veteran team just wasn’t good enough to compete with Vermont)

62. Lehigh (Swept league champ Bucknell but fell in the tournament championship game)

63. New Mexico State (Won the WAC tournament in the first season without Marvin Menzies)

64. Winthrop (Won both the regular- season and conference titles in the Big South)

65. Sam Houston State (Won 21 games but never really threatened in the Southland)

66. Wagner (Finished third in the NEC and lost a heartbreaker in the league semifinals)

67. Howard (Never competitive in the MEAC this season)

68. Texas Southern (SWAC champs did make the tournament but avoided an opening-round game)

Follow all of our NCAA Tournament coverage online at reviewjournal.com/MarchMadness and @RJ_Sports on Twitter.

Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com or 702-277-8028. Follow @adamhilllvrj on Twitter.